THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF A TYPICAL HOME SALE



Reaping the Rewards?

Now that the stock market has started to rally so strongly, maybe it’s time for people to take what they’ve made, and buy real estate instead.  In our region, prices are still very low, compared to even twenty years ago.  We used to have average home prices well above the national average, so that job recruits moving here were worried about finding affordable housing comparable to their previous homes.  Now, we are very close to the national average, and we haven’t gone up, in some areas, enough to cover the declines of the last decade.  Commercial prices have been bumping along, also not moving up over time.  Some industrial buildings are at prices equal to those of years ago.  While some towns have a shortage of smaller commercial spaces, others have empty big box stores, many of which could be repurposed.  We are very short on affordable housing in our region, and the gap keeps growing, as rents continue to rise.  Even as housing prices for homes have declined, rents have doubled, and many tenants are paying a percentage of their incomes for rental units that is considered to be onerous.

 

What does all this mean for buyers?  Real estate is, and always has been, cyclical to some extent.  Through the boom  years, we would say that what goes up, must come down.  Now it seems that the opposite should also be true:  What went down, will come back up.  There is still an opportunity in our area, which isn’t true in much of the country—especially the coasts—to get normal appreciation on purchases, given the current state of prices.  We know that investors have been increasingly drawn to our state, because of the high prices in Boston and NY.  Why would locals not invest as well?  While we’ve been reading about the woes of Connecticut, others have been coming from out of state and out of the country, and buying and buying.  With our deeper knowledge of the local market, we should be able to do better than they could.  So let’s make a resolution in 2019:  Buy local!

Listings Flying Off the Shelf

After a long, long, long winter, we're seeing signs of spring! And that includes the spring market. I'm starting to get lots of calls from people connected to Yale, who've gotten their job offers and are beginning to look for housing here. We are entering lots of new listings into the system--several dozen in New Haven alone last month. And, at long last, some of the suburban inventory is moving. I heard last week that a spate of sales in Pine Orchard has reduced the available inventory drastically. Even things that have been for sale for a very long time have gone on deposit. That's good news for sellers, who have been consoling themselves with the thought that nothing was selling, while they sat with their houses unsold. If they aren't going now, it's time to re-examine the price, because we're experiencing a boost that should help everyone. And it's about time!

The Power of Low Rates

I have a real estate friend in Madison, Wisconsin--where the market seems a lot like ours much of the time--who thinks that the real estate market will not recover unless and until the government aims directly at our industry with programs designed to improve sales. Although the tax credits did that, they expired and left us, arguably, in worse shape than ever (however, people don't realize that, because they look at the fact that housing prices haven't declined much, and in some cases, they have edged up slightly--that's because all the first-time homebuyers have left the market, leaving higher-priced homes as the only ones selling). The government has focused on the banks, using first TARP money and then foreclosure actions to regulate activity. We probably haven't been helped at all by the foreclosure stoppage, since it just lengthens the period of time where the whole housing system is backed up. Until all those homes, which--foreclosed or not--the owners can't afford, get transferred somehow, there won't be a "normal" real estate market. Appraisers can't even use those transfers in computing value, since they aren't arm's-length transactions, but they obviously have an effect on values and on regular sales.

This same friend, although thinking that we need Federal intervention to improve our market, also has the most compelling argument for buying right now. He has made charts that show that a 10% drop in prices actually has less of an effect on monthly payments (the gold standard by which most buyers decide how much they can afford) than a 1% rise in interest rates. Therefore, buying a home now, with the current rates, costs you less than buying it later, even if prices drop by another 10%. If rates go up, that savings in the prices will be more than offset. Whether that obviates the need for governmental action on behalf of the housing industry, I'm not sure. But I am sure that it makes a compelling case for buying a home now.

Should We Let the Market Fall?

There's a very interesting article on the front of today's NYT business section about the differing predictions as to future real estate prices, and what to do about the flailing state of demand. Some experts think that real estate has been overvalued for the past couple of decades at least, and that the medium-term future upside will be limited to minor price increases. Those people often believe that we are at the beginning of the dreaded "double dip", and that real property prices will drop again.

Other experts feel that real estate is a luxury good, and that people will spend more on housing if they can. As my most recent prior blog would indicate, I'm in that camp. Especially when you consider the age of the baby boomers, I believe that they will "nest" over the next number of years, spending as much as they can on houses where they feel that they could live in retirement, and where their children will visit them. That would argue for higher values, at least for premium properties. As people spend less on food, they are going to spend their excess income on something, and I'm betting on housing over travel (not as easy as it used to be), cars (not politically correct), and clothing (ditto). Housing is where you can express your individuality without looking like a conspicuous consumer.

If you believe this scenario, then housing will improve as soon as consumer confidence rises and remains higher. For more on governmental intervention, I have an idea about that, too, so tune in next time.