Buyer's Remorse

For some reason, buyers have been pulling out of contracts more than they ever did in the past.  Most of us track business through signed contracts, figuring that the number of signed contracts that do not close stays relatively close to the same percentage year in and year out, so we don't feel that we have to adjust for sales that do not close, since they don't change year over year comparisons. For the past couple of years, however, that hasn't been the case--nationally, contracts that don't result in closed sales have doubled or tripled.  For a long time, we all thought that was the fault of banks and, through them, appraisers.

 While banks are always popular to blame for most things, it appears that there may be something else at work.  Even though we are now at a point in the real estate market where units are increasing and mortgage rates have started to rise, buyers still seem to feel that they have unlimited time and unlimited choice, so they dither.  Each time something new comes on the horizon, they go off to see it, even when they have already signed a contract for something else.  Instead of the principle of cognitive dissonance, which says that your mind will convince you that you've done the right thing when you make a choice and it is done, they now seem to deal with buyer's remorse by revisiting the choice again and again.  Is this a generational issue, since first-time homebuyers, who dominate the current market, have older relatives coming in and advising them before their purchases are finalized?  Or is this the result of a world where no one thinks that his or her decisions are final?  We'll find out when the economy improves more, since there won't be as much distraction with other choices drying up.  In the meantime, our advice to sellers is age old:  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Thanksgiving

Despite the woes of the real estate market, there are many things to be grateful for this season, as always.  For those of us who are healthy, most people would rate that as enough to be happy, all by itself.  For those who have family with them, especially at the holidays, ditto.  For those who have enough to eat, a place to live, a job, and friends, that's enough for most of the world.

Could the real estate market be better?  Of course.  Could transactions be easier?  Of course.  Would it be nice for us to be a little higher up on the food chain?  Undoubtedly.  But, every once in a while, and more often for some, we get to feel good, when we help a family, a business, or an individual find the perfect space, especially when they take the time to tell us.  And we get calls from loyal clients and friends who think of us for their real estate needs and those of their colleagues and relatives, and that's nice as well.  Bottom line:  we're in a helping profession, and we're glad to be of assistance.

So Happy Holidays to all of our clients and friends, and may the coming season be full of joy, good cheer, and closings!

Making Connecticut Business Friendly

Many people don't understand the connection between a business-friendly climate and housing prices. Connecticut is a good example of it. We have ranked dead last among the fifty states in job creation over the past twenty years--for those of you who are counting, that's far longer than the current recession. We export college students, young people, all kinds of people. They go where the jobs are. Lots of you will know where those places are, because it's where your children live.

Without new jobs, there aren't people coming into the state, or staying in the state, to buy homes. Therefore, there isn't a growing market, and there are no buyers for those homes vacated by others who leave, or who downsize, or who transition into assisted living. That also means that new construction competes with existing housing, since relocated homeowners who buy new homes therefore don't buy current ones. All of this explains why low job growth is bad.

But why is it bad? To begin with, we in the Land of Steady Habits tend to believe that everyone wants to live here, and therefore we don't have to make it attractive to do so. We also tend to believe that businesses need to be here. That's true in some cases--like a local real estate firm, or a utility--but is clearly not the case in manufacturing and in more other industries than you would think. So we don't push our lawmakers and state and local officials to do more to attract and retain business. Yes, we want to keep those big defense contracts. But most of the jobs are in small businesses and start-ups. That's where the NIMBY (not in my back yard) folks, the preservationists, the anti-big box protesters, and the knee-jerk city planners and economic development departments lose the race for jobs. Of course, those same people often decry the increases in taxes, but without seeing the connection.

What can you do? Ask your municipality and state officials to be kind to business. Don't jump on the bandwagon to avoid personal tax increases by loading up corporate taxes. Don't let local planning and zoning processes become obstacle courses. Try to think about all sides of the issues. And vote for those who do.

Independent Contractors

Yesterday I explained to a client that real estate agents are independent contractors. I know that most people realize that real estate agents, and companies, only get paid when someone buys or sells a piece of property. But sometimes I doubt whether they know the full extent of what that means. It means that agents don't get paid for their time. Or their gas. Or the lunch that they might buy you when you spend a long day looking at houses. Or their cell phone. Or their car, car insurance, and repairs. Or their real estate license, continuing education, Board fees, and MLS fees. Or the extra advertising and marketing that they may do on your property (while our firm pays for postage, advertising, and training, many firms charge agents for those services). It's expensive to be a real estate agent, and even more expensive to be a real professional, with all the tools.

Indpendent contractors, who don't get salaries or benefits, deduct their business expenses themselves. In effect, they run their own small businesses. They affiliate with brokers, and use the branding and offices of those brokers, but they don't work set hours. We aren't even allowed to carry worker's comp insurance on them. They assume the costs of working, and, as I often say, they "eat what they kill" in terms of compensation. They get paid for what they do, when it goes well. When it doesn't, they bear the risks.

Why, you may ask, did I decide to blog about this now? The simple answer is that, when I was told by this client that he understood that an agent only got paid when he bought, and that those were the breaks, I'm not sure he really got what he was saying. I guess it gets down to the Golden Rule, as most things do. How much time would you spend doing work for someone and not getting paid, before you felt that it was unfair?

Clients didn't create our compensation system in the real estate industry, and I'm not asking them to be responsible for changing it (although I would certainly love to change it!). I just want them to understand that, if they aren't serious, or they aren't willing to stay with someone until the transaction is completed, then they are really asking for services for free. And the way you treat someone who is doing you a favor may be different than the way you behave if you think it's someone's paid job to help you. It's that simple, and that complicated.

Should We Let the Market Fall?

There's a very interesting article on the front of today's NYT business section about the differing predictions as to future real estate prices, and what to do about the flailing state of demand. Some experts think that real estate has been overvalued for the past couple of decades at least, and that the medium-term future upside will be limited to minor price increases. Those people often believe that we are at the beginning of the dreaded "double dip", and that real property prices will drop again.

Other experts feel that real estate is a luxury good, and that people will spend more on housing if they can. As my most recent prior blog would indicate, I'm in that camp. Especially when you consider the age of the baby boomers, I believe that they will "nest" over the next number of years, spending as much as they can on houses where they feel that they could live in retirement, and where their children will visit them. That would argue for higher values, at least for premium properties. As people spend less on food, they are going to spend their excess income on something, and I'm betting on housing over travel (not as easy as it used to be), cars (not politically correct), and clothing (ditto). Housing is where you can express your individuality without looking like a conspicuous consumer.

If you believe this scenario, then housing will improve as soon as consumer confidence rises and remains higher. For more on governmental intervention, I have an idea about that, too, so tune in next time.

Snowing Again

It's snowing tonight in Guilford, and it seems to have been snowing quite a lot lately. When our kids were little, they used to get excited by snow, and hope for a day off from school. The phone would ring, and I would tell them that it was the sound of people cancelling their real estate appointments. No school, no showings. Although that was a decade ago, things haven't changed. When the weather is bad enough, no one looks at real estate.

We're lucky that we aren't in a business where a day like today means that those sales can never be made up at another time. If a plane takes off with empty seats, or a theater has no patrons, that's money down the drain. At least most people looking for property will look again on a nicer day. Generally, it's not an impulse purchase, or a date-specific one.

There are also the issues of showings and open houses. Unless everything is perfectly plowed, it can be tricky to have buyers coming in on icy sidewalks. It's often hard to park with snow piled on the sides of streets. And few places look their best with wintry boots and shoes tracking the outside slush onto rugs and floors.

I wonder if the Internet has changed all this for us. When you're home due to cancellations, as I am this evening, do you go online and shop for your dream home? Or a vacation place? Or the new location your business needs? We hope so!