Handling Inspections

We have come to think of the inspection period in the housebuying continuum as the second negotiation.  If professionals do thorough inspections of homes, they can almost always find things that are wrong, or that could go wrong in the future. In fact, when we bought our home 25 years ago, so many things were given a "D" condition rating that it's a wonder we could live there--and some of them have never needed further attention.  On the other hand, many things needed fixing, some right away, that weren't found in the inspection.

So, let's say that you are the buyer, and you have ten days to get all the tests you want.  You should get a non-relative professional to check the property, and you will then receive a written report.  Keep careful track of the dates, because your right to withdraw without penalty expires at a certain time, if you do not give written notice.  Obtain estimates for fixing the more serious items mentioned, and think about what you really want to ask for from the seller.  In today's tight market, there could very well be a backup buyer, and you are going to lose the house, if you ask for too much.  Remember that you are looking for defects, not aesthetic choices.  The fact that you'd prefer different appliances does not make that an item for the seller to address.

Ok, now you have a list, with costs.  Put the things you feel strongly about into a list, that you keep as short as possible, and send it to the seller's agent before the date of expiration.  Write it so that you are excused from the contract unless agreement on these items is reached.  In our company's contract, we put a limit on that time, and say that the entire contract is null and void, if agreement on the inspection items is not achieved with seven days of the end of the period.  That limits the chances that negotiations will drag on, and that one party can feel that there is still a contract, while the other is ready to move on.

The sellers will often counter with a list of what they will do, and what they will not.  At this point, you should consider the urgency of any repairs, the structural nature (or not) of those repairs for safety purposes, and any work you plan to do, which might make those fixes moot or cheaper.  Consider other ways to resolve the differences, from having the seller throw in furniture or equipment instead, or giving a lump sum of cash, with you assuming the repairs yourself (which will guarantee that they are done in the way that you prefer).  At the end of the day, it's a gut call about what you can live with, and how much you want the house.  Again, pay close attention to the time remaining to decide.  You may have time for another round of negotiations, or you may not.  Don't insist on things that you will later say you could have given up, unless you are sure that you are prepared to walk away, if you get a negative response from the sellers.

The same is true of the sellers, with the additional caveat that you should agree to any repairs that you will have to make in order to sell the house to any buyer, meaning that you will have to do it for the next person, if you don't do it now.  Remember that you will have to disclose any flaws to other buyers, if they are indeed problems.  Don't let a few repairs stop you from selling to a good buyer.  Time is money, and you will have to start the whole process over.  Don't get fixed on a number that you want to receive, because this is a business decision at this point.

To both parties:  Keep your eye on the closing!

Handling Multiple Offers

The first thing buyers probably want to know is why we have so many multiple offers, when the real estate market doesn't seem overheated?  The answer is that consumers today know the market very well, often as well as their agents do.  They have been to many open houses and/or showings, and they have a sense of how quickly a home will sell.  We advise sellers, in the pursuit of a high selling price, to price their homes in the sweet spot--i.e., where the buyers will perceive that they need to make a good offer right away, if they want to get that house.  Since many properties on the market are overpriced, those homes priced aggressively stand out, and buyers know that.

So, here we are.  We have a new listing, priced to sell, and three different sets of buyers have made offers.  What do we do now?  The most important realization for most people is that the seller is in control.  The agent advises, but there is no law on how to handle multiple offers, so s/he can accept any of them, ask for each of them to present a new offer, or simply state what they would take, and sign with the first party who agrees.  If I am allowed to give advice, I tell people to negotiate with one party at a time (especially since the only real danger in multiple offers is that the seller might inadvertently accept more than one, or the buyer might have offers accepted on more than one home, if they are not paying attention to the details).  It might be the highest price, but it's also possible that it's the cleanest offer with the fewest contingencies, an offer without a mortgage requirement, or an early closing date.  If you are the buyer, then, you should make the cleanest offer that you possibly can.

Many times the agent asks each of the bidders to come in with their "highest and best" offer.  In that case, I tell people to offer the highest price that they would be sorry not to have bid, if someone else got it for that amount.  That means, of course, that buyers shouldn't be sorry if they went as high as they could afford to go.  In a multiple offer situation, buyers should not expect, however, to be able to renegotiate much, if at all, after inspections.  When there's another buyer, or buyers, in the picture, the advantage here goes to the seller.  Also, in a multiple bidding environment, you should not count on a Hubbard clause to win the bid, since a clean offer will almost always beat it. 

The last important note to strike is that it's very common for buyers to doubt that other offers exist, or that they are being treated fairly.  Agents, in my experience, don't lie about other bidders, nor do they do anything that would interfere with the seller getting the best offer (which may, of course, not be the highest in dollar terms).  Most Realtors are very careful to give the same information and opportunity to all parties, since we are bound by the Code of Ethics to treat all parties fairly, and to act in the best interest of our client.  No one is happy to lose a bid, but it can happen under the best of circumstances, and buyers should learn from any mistakes (like delaying), and move on. 

For Sellers:  Price to sell, and be fair to everyone.  Don't be greedy.
For Buyers:  Do your homework ahead of time--know your limits and your preferences.  Act quickly!

A Different Market

All real estate markets are variable, as are all cycles.  What applies to one property may not apply to another.  Yet there are usually certain truisms that stand out at any given time.  So what are we seeing now?

First of all, inventories have tightened in almost every segment.  There just isn't as much on the market.  Good properties can get snapped up almost instantly, sometimes with multiple offers.  This is particularly true on the lower end of the price continuum.

Secondly, rates have been rising, meaning that time is of the essence.  If you are able to afford a home now, don't wait.  It will cost you more every month in the future, if rates go up further, and inflation is a real fear in this economy.  Even if you are downsizing, money is cheaper to borrow currently.

Thirdly, sellers (who tend to be older than buyers) value different things than do buyers (who tend to be younger).  There is often renegotiation that takes place after the inspections, not because the home is falling apart, but because the buyer intends to do work that the seller might not think is necessary, and which, indeed, may not be.  A seller shouldn't be surprised if a buyer is looking to change the floor pattern, bathrooms, security system, or appliances.  As a seller, you don't have to participate in those choices, unless you want to sell your home to that buyer.  There is an exception here--multiple offers reduce the cost of renegotiation, by changing the power dynamics.

Multiple offers still tend to come on properties that are very well priced, and also on those that are in move-in condition.  Prepping the house well for sale helps with that, as does making your offering price so attractive that more than one party will bid, often above asking.  Not only does that drive up the final sales price, but it cuts down on give backs, since buyers know they are competing.

If you are trading up to a larger and/or more expensive home, you may be better off than those trading down.  Not only is supply more plentiful, but carrying costs are a real concern for many people, and bigger homes can sell at discounts that smaller homes would not have to face.  This provides a real opportunity for those who are willing and able to purchase a large home, and those buyers can end up with a lot for their money.  In addition, they will start with more money, since the smaller home that they are selling is probably increasing faster than the larger one they are seeking to buy.  Every market has pockets of opportunity, and this is one--go over $1,000,000 for the best value.

Finally, don't expect this market to change rapidly.  Every other part of the country has already seen declining and tight inventory, and therefore rising prices.  If it is starting to happen here, remember that it is just starting.  And adjust your expectations--then make your move!

Be Prepared to Jump

One of the toughest things for us to combat over the past few years has been the sense that buyers have had, that they can take all the time they want to, while making decisions.  It seemed to many that, not only would the same property be available, but that others that might be as good or better would come along all the time.  That made it difficult to put transactions together.

Now we seem to be joining the rest of the country in having low inventory.  In many price ranges, there simply isn't enough available to satisfy the demand.  This is particularly true at the first-time homebuyer price points.  In some places around the country, time on the market is measured in hours, or perhaps in days.  We're not used to that here, to say the least.

Buyers need to get ready to make decisions on homes that they see, before others make offers, or at the same time.  It helps to have a list of things that must be true about a new home you would buy, in order of how important each item is.  It's also really useful to rank each home as you see it, and, while remembering that nothing is perfect, to eliminate any that do not bump off any of your current top three choices.

Sometimes, it can be crucial to have someone on hand to evaluate changes or additions that you would require, and get a price right away.  Arranging inspections quickly can also give you an advantage, as well of course as a prequalification.  The most important factor, however, is your own willingness to pull the trigger.  More people regret not making an offer in time, than they do those that they make.

This is the point at which I come back to one of my favorite pieces of advice:  Bid the amount that you would be unhappy to hear that it sold for, to someone else.  That's your true estimate of the property's value to you.  And be prepared to come to that number in relatively short order.  That's becoming more important every day in our current market.

Finally, It's Fall

This morning was a stark contrast with yesterday, when it was 64 degrees at 6 AM.  Today, it was 37 degrees, and I went running with gloves and a jacket, for the first time this fall.  Starting yesterday afternoon, we saw fall blowing in--although we had one little taste of the season in the last week of August, so we shouldn't give up hope of some more warm weather just yet.

Cooler weather, though, makes people come inside.  The imminent end to Daylight Savings Time exacerbates that tendency.  What do they do indoors?  They look at real estate online, among other things, and the longer evenings indoors gives them more time to do it.  Once they look, they may start attending open houses, or scheduling showings.  It's only a few weeks until the shortest day of the year, when we can begin to anticipate spring again.

During October and November, though, buyers who look are more likely to buy, and to close quickly.  Sellers should therefore keep their homes decluttered, rake their leaves, and be reasonable on prices, so that they can be the ones to attract the fall buyers.  While some houses do sell in the dead of winter, these precious weeks of fall offer more chances to sell, and sellers should facilitate that wherever possible.

Let the crisp air invigorate you, and your real estate plans and dreams.  It's the perfect time to act!

Be Open to Listening to Your Realtor

We all know that lots of people don't listen very well.  It's also true that sometimes others talk about things without knowing much about the subject.  And sometimes, you may know more about something than the person who is trying to educate you.  However, most of the time when you hire an expert, you do so because you are interested in what they have to say about their field of expertise.  Part of why you have engaged them is so that you can benefit from their knowledge, even if all you are doing is confirming your own hypotheses.

As Realtors, our job is to give people the best advice and information we have about how to sell or buy a property.  What we tell others comes from experience, from "inside" information from within our companies or our industry, and from the collective wisdom of those in our firms and contacts.  It may not always be correct, but it usually has some data points behind it, and it is gathered and disseminated with the best of intentions.  Often it is more up to date than what is available through public records, or even appraisal firms.

Therefore, it's always surprising to us that people who come to us for help then ignore advice, or even argue with us.  I've been working in real estate for a long time, and the following have all been said to me within the fairly recent past:
"I'm going to tell you what we should do, that I heard from a person next to me on a plane yesterday, but I don't have time to listen to your answer";
"You might learn something about your field from me";
"Do you have anything to say that is worth my listening to?  I'm busy doing something else right now." (This from a person who picked the time of the call).
"I hear you, but I'm depending upon the statue of St. Joseph that I buried in my backyard". (This house did sell.)
And the most common:  "This isn't what happens in Austin/Boston/Charlotte/Denver...." or "I've done this before, and you need to ask more and leave room to bargain" or "offer less, and leave room to bargain".

You get the idea. One of our key tasks is to listen closely to your wants and needs, so we aren't asking you to do anything we shouldn't also be doing ourselves. We don't claim that we are infallible or that we have all the answers, but it's usually worth listening to your Realtor, and being sure that you heard what he/she said, and not what you wanted to hear, before you decide that you know better.  We do have recent market data and statistics, lots of experience, and are clearly vested in the success of the transaction, since that's how we get paid.  The final decision is always yours, but it's best to make it with the most professional input at your disposal.

Stark Company Realtors : Timing is Everything

The following is from Stark Company Realtors.  For more information about the following newsletter or to view properties in South Central Wisconsin, please visit their website by clicking here



Millennials Catch Up

We've all been reading for the past few years about how millennials are slow to leave home, slow to find a career, slow to get married, and slow to buy houses.  In addition, there has been a lot of speculation that they would never embrace some of those things the way that their parents and grandparents did.  Even if they wanted to buy homes, the story went, they have too much student debt to do so, and a generational disinclination to suburbs and investment in real estate in general.

Lately, it seems as though the pundits spoke too soon.  Now the theory is that, while the average 30-year-old has had eight jobs, and while millennials have reason to distrust corporate America, given what happened to many of their parents in the most recent downturn and the one before that one, he or she is not so different from earlier 30-year-olds, or at least from those having children.  They seem to want to buy homes, and even homes in the suburbs, once they start having kids.  While walkability is desirable for them, and puts places with amenities within walking distance at a premium, they own cars, and want to own houses also.

When the Gen Xers and Yers reached this point, they were not interested in homes that needed updating or redecorating.  They wanted everything to be perfect.  The millennial generation, which grew up on HGTV, is much more likely to undertake those types of projects.  In fact, their interest in having balanced lives and healthy lifestyles will make it easier for them to spend the time at home that DIY undertakings require; even professional help means that you need to take the time to hire and manage it, and this generation is willing to do that. 

All of this is good news for sellers, who have struggled with the dilemma of whether or not to fix up homes before selling them, knowing that they could guess wrongly about the taste or budget of a buyer.  Now it seems possible to show potential, and leave the rest up to the buyers.  Reports from recent weekends have indicated that there are lines out the door at open houses in some parts of our region, made up both of first-time homebuyers and downsizing boomers.  Maybe both of those groups will finally rejuvenate the stock of homes being vacated by seniors.  They might have to, if demand goes up enough, and if they end up competing against each other for the listings that are out there.  Now that would be a welcome problem for Realtors in Connecticut!

Happy New Year!

We in real estate are looking forward to a very happy 2016, for several reasons. First of all, it may sound counterintuitive, but having the Fed raise rates slightly is almost always good for business. People just don't seem to take the threat of higher mortgage rates seriously, until they actually begin to go up. That tends to make buyers much more motivated to buy in the short run, as opposed to what they have been doing, which is a lot of looking, waiting, and looking some more.

Another sign of hope is the lack of inventory in some price ranges, and the number of first-time homebuyers out there. As millennials marry and have children, they (often with the help of their parents) will buy homes. Up until now, they've been happy renters. In our area, the math clearly suggests that buying is better. Soon, a new generation will agree.

Locally, we can probably thank GE, but the Governor has definitely gotten the message that residents have choices about where to live, and they have been voting with their feet. The attention on our loss of population, jobs, and allure is getting our state to the point where it feels it needs to respond. And, if it does, more renters who own property elsewhere may buy here, also or instead.

All of these factors make me optimistic for 2016, but, in order for me to be correct, many of you have to agree. Here's hoping that you do!

Real Estate, The Fed, and You

The Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve has been making serious noises about raising the cost of funds, and causing interest rates to rise at long last.  Although the timing is not certain, it does seem clear that rising rates should start by the middle of this year.  Obviously, that is big news for real estate, since mortgage rates direct affect sales of properties; as the cost of monthly ownership goes up, people can afford to pay less for the home or building, and the number of people who can qualify at all goes down. Clearly, although there are broad signs of economic improvement across most of the country, the Fed is worried about disturbing the fragile real estate recovery, and rightly so.  However, rates have been so low for so long that there seems to be no other alternative, so the question is simply when it will happen.


The funny thing about the effect of rising mortgage rates on real estate is that buyers don't seem to be spurred by talk of rising rates.  Until rates actually go up--then they rush to act.  Therefore, in a way, rates going up will help us, since our problem locally is that languishing prices have caused buyers to hesitate and dither, since they don't seem to be worried that anything they are considering will get sold while they are on hold.  Once they see the consequences of having waited, they begin to feel some urgency.  And that causes bidding wars, competition, and, ultimately, rising prices.  The buyers then face a double whammy, of rising mortgage costs and increased sales prices.  So why don't they act before this begins to happen?  Only specialists in consumer behavior know!

What To Do About Low First Offers

One of the most frustrating situations for real estate agents is how to advise buyers and sellers about making or responding to the first offer on a home.  It doesn't come up all the time, because some homes are clearly going to move quickly, and some are so obviously priced to sell that buyers know that they cannot play around.  However, it happens more than one might think, that the buyers put in (usually with advice from outsiders and not from real estate professionals) an offer so far below the asking price that sellers are insulted, and often do not even counter it.

It's a little baffling as to why this should be so common, because I've written many times about buyers knowing what homes are worth, from doing their internet research and seeing so many that are for sale.  The buyers should have a pretty good idea, in many cases, about not only what the property is worth, but about what it will fetch on the open market (although those numbers are arguably the same, we all know exceptions).  Yet somehow, they frequently come in with a first offer twenty or more percent below that figure.  Sometimes, it's because they like the house, but can't really afford it, so they are taking a flyer, much like applying to a "reach" college.  Lot of times, though, they are hoping that they can reap the benefit of a still-depressed market, and get a bargain.

While bargains do occur, sellers also know, in many cases, what they think their home will bring.  Putting in a very low offer insults them, both from the point of view that they think their home is desirable, and should be appreciated as such, and also because they think buyers are trying to take advantage of them.  Our job then is to get them to look beyond those feelings, and deal with what's on the table.

 So many people think that the price ultimately paid will fall in the middle between the asking price and the first offer that we wonder why--how is real estate different from any other field in that regard?  Plenty of other things sell at the asking price, or near it.  However, there is a common perception that, if you lower your price up front, you will get less in the end. Again, why?  No one forces a seller to take a particular offer.  While you can always hold firm, holding firm at the asking price means that you think it will sell for that.  Unless you are confident, and your Realtor agrees, you should counter at some number--it doesn't have to be far below asking, just enough to keep the ball rolling.  We need something to work with, and we need the buyer to stay interested.  It's just the fact, unfortunately, that you can't make the buyers' first offer for them.  Remember, though, that it's often the second round that indicates what they really think, and how high they can really go.  And it's easier to get another offer, if other agents and clients know that someone is serious enough to bid.  It deals with the current problem that buyers think everything will still be for sale when they are ready to act.  Wouldn't it be nice for sellers if that weren't true?

Sellers Take Note

Many people read the national news when it comes to real estate and forget that, like politics, all real estate is local.  In the past couple of years, most news has been about prices rising once again, and inventories running low across the country, especially (of course) in California.

We don't like to dwell on bad news, but our region was one of only six out of the top hundred metro markets around the nation whose average price fell from May 2013 to May 2014.  Three of the past few months have also seen declines.  I hate to bring it up, but sellers considering offers, or even listing price, should take those statistics into account.

There are multiple reasons for the fall in prices here, and some will certainly go away over time, but, for now, we are in stasis at a lower price point for most real estate, and we should accept that during the fall market that lasts until Thanksgiving.  Buyers will have choices, and it's fine to stick to your guns about price, unless you want to sell in the short run.  The spring market may be different, so buyers, who may expect that low selling prices and low mortgage rates will last forever, should act now.  Everybody will be better off if everyone is realistic.

Live Time Chat

As we tread further into the brave new world of digital marketing, we try new ways of reaching and serving our clients all the time.  This week, we have begun offering "live time chat" on our Pearce website.  People who log onto our site between 8 AM and 1 AM will see a pop-up box after they begin browsing, that will offer them the chance to talk to a person immediately.  While that person is not an agent, and will ultimately be referring certain questions to our offices during business hours, it represents our latest attempt to give buyers and sellers what they want, when they want it.

It's certainly been a long journey since the days when buyers had to come into a physical real estate office, and sit down with an agent to go through "the book".  That was the MLS compendium of currently listed real estate properties, and it came out every two weeks, with the latest in inventory available twice a month.  Twice a year, we could buy a book that had the sales for the past six months chronicled for our use.  We didn't give out maps or addresses of listed properties, and most information we did give out was only available on little cards, that we kept in a little box that looked like something in which you would store recipes. It seems strange now, but it was what we had, and it seemed normal to us!

We've gone all the way in the other direction now, and you can find out almost anything about a property, currently listed or not, with the flick of a finger on a mouse.  It may not all be accurate, but it is readily available.  Real estate agents, on the other hand, have morphed too; they've become consultants and counselors.  They no longer control the information, but they are adept at interpreting it, as well as in streamlining the process of buying or selling.

So, if you are scrolling the internet at midnight, and you happen to talk to our live receptionist, think for a moment of how much things have changed!  And how much they still remain the same--we're still here to help you in any way we can, to make the very best real estate decisions for you, your families, and your firms.

Listing Inventory

We spent some time this week going over our listings, to get a sense of what inventory we have for current buyers to see.  While we have more listings than we had six months ago, we found that we had the same distribution--a few new listings that are being shown a lot, a few short sales where the banks are taking so long to approve offers, or simply rejecting all offers, that they won't sell at all, and a bunch of listings that we know are overpriced, and are usually not even being shown.

In addition, we have recent anecdotal evidence matching what we have always known--houses that sell quickly for the highest prices are those that are perceived of as well-priced and likely to disappear if not bought right away.  We just sold a home in four days that had been listed twice before without success.  What was the difference?  This time the owners took the Realtors' pricing recommendation, had a lot of showings right away, started a bidding war, and ended up getting over the asking price.  One more notable fact about this house is that it is in pristine, move-in condition.  That's what buyers want now.  No more DIY projects, or deferred plans for upgrading.  What sells is what's perfect, or close to it.

So the bimodal distribution of inventory continues--a little bit of choice on great, well-priced, new listings, and a lot of signs on properties that aren't going to sell quickly.  Sellers, take note!

Consumer Confidence and Real Estate

Real estate sales have always tied closely to the index of consumer confidence.  Buyers' attitudes toward spending in general matter as much as interest rates to our level of sales.  The index has been going up most of the time over the past couple of years, rising even before we noticed an uptick.

Now, although the real estate market is much improved, the consumer confidence index is wobbling.  The past couple of months have seen declines, and, although we aren't seeing its effects directly, we know that the market recovery has always been shaky.  Every change in the stock market or mortgage policy makes us nervous.  We cannot count yet on the rising tide to carry us back to a strong sales climate.

We certainly can keep our fingers crossed that the recent dip is just that--a dip.  Also, it seems as though our improvement has come disproportionately from first-time buyers, who might be less inclined by age (they can't remember past downturns), life status (they are in the peak years of household formation), and risk profile (they tend to be less conservative), to worry quite as much about statistics.  Let's hope so.

Where are the Young Real Estate Agents?

We spent a good deal of the morning brainstorming about recruiting.  Nationally, and for us, the average real estate agent is in his/her late 50s.  Since the market is now being driven by first-time homebuyers, and since they are mostly in their 20s and 30s, there is a disconnect between professionals and  clients.  Most of the agents are digital immigrants, and might have kids the same age as the buyers, so it would certainly be good to develop a pool of younger agents.  Younger buyers, and sellers, have vastly different expectations about technology, about time, about how to shop for anything, and about risk.

When we thought about recruiting agents to match this profile, we realized that there are many aspects of a real estate career that would appeal to Gen Xers and Millenials.  Unlike the Greatest Generation, they aren't expecting one steady career for a lifetime, so the ups and downs of a commission-based agent wouldn't necessarily trouble them.  Unlike older workers, they aren't tied to an office or a standard work day--they could start at noon if they were serving sellers and buyers who shared their hours!  They wouldn't be limited to two weeks of vacation every year, and their dress code would be flexible.  In all those ways, it's a perfect career for a younger person.  And, if their parents have to support them in this job market, as they graduate and look for work, why not enter a field where hiring--and potential--are unlimited?

Lots of Cash

Many more real estate sales lately are for cash.  While it's true everywhere in the country, it's particularly true in Connecticut.  Can you guess the percentage of people who close with cash?  If you guessed 39%,  you're right!

While that seems like a lot, and it is, it makes some sense when it's so cumbersome to fill out the paperwork for a mortgage, and when the restrictions are so much tighter.  I suspect that some number of those buyers later apply for, and receive, mortgages, especially with rates so low (although they're certainly not losing much in the way of interest on cash, and they don't have a great deal of stability in the stock market).

When there is no mortgage, the closings often happen much sooner.  We see people closing in a couple of weeks, once all the inspections are finished.  Getting a mortgage later really speeds the process up.

One tricky question, however, is how to know whether the buyer is serious and qualified, without the help of the mortgage qualification letter.   It seems strange, but it's sometimes easier to believe that someone is really going to buy if they are borrowing the money, than when they say that they have it in the bank.  Not a bad issue to have, I guess, but it has been arising more frequently.  The danger of real damage is less, however, when the closing is quick. Nothing's perfect, but cash is king!

Activity Abounds

Finally, spring has sprung, and the real estate market has responded.  I hear stories every day about listings that have sold in one day, listings that have not sold for two years and now have two offers in one week, listings that    are having showings right and left, and buyers that are finally moving off the fence.

The market continues to be driven by first-time homebuyers, and there are still people moving here from other places that are choosing to rent before buying, but the activity is clearly on the upswing, and there is much more of a sense that things are beginning to recover.  While we have more inventory than many other regions of the country, even we are seeing quick turnover in some neighborhoods and price ranges.  For instance, Guilford still has 275 homes on the market, which is a 50% increase over last year, but houses are selling quickly there when they come onto MLS.  East Rock in New Haven has 30 houses for sale, but one of our agents just sold one in a single day.

Have you been waiting for the market to turn so that you could buy or sell?  Have you been waiting for prices to bottom out?  Have you just been waiting?  Wait no more.  The time is now!

Buyer's Remorse

For some reason, buyers have been pulling out of contracts more than they ever did in the past.  Most of us track business through signed contracts, figuring that the number of signed contracts that do not close stays relatively close to the same percentage year in and year out, so we don't feel that we have to adjust for sales that do not close, since they don't change year over year comparisons. For the past couple of years, however, that hasn't been the case--nationally, contracts that don't result in closed sales have doubled or tripled.  For a long time, we all thought that was the fault of banks and, through them, appraisers.

 While banks are always popular to blame for most things, it appears that there may be something else at work.  Even though we are now at a point in the real estate market where units are increasing and mortgage rates have started to rise, buyers still seem to feel that they have unlimited time and unlimited choice, so they dither.  Each time something new comes on the horizon, they go off to see it, even when they have already signed a contract for something else.  Instead of the principle of cognitive dissonance, which says that your mind will convince you that you've done the right thing when you make a choice and it is done, they now seem to deal with buyer's remorse by revisiting the choice again and again.  Is this a generational issue, since first-time homebuyers, who dominate the current market, have older relatives coming in and advising them before their purchases are finalized?  Or is this the result of a world where no one thinks that his or her decisions are final?  We'll find out when the economy improves more, since there won't be as much distraction with other choices drying up.  In the meantime, our advice to sellers is age old:  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Learning from Ebay

I'm not an Ebay person, but I have lots of friends who are, and I've certainly read enough about the philosophy to get the idea.  You go on looking for something, and then you watch the bidding over a period of time.  In the end, if you want to get something, you pay the price that it takes to get it.  If you can't stand watching others bid, you take the "Buy It Now" option.

There's a real estate theory along the same lines.  When a house is listed, potential buyers look, and note the price.  They often sit back and watch the action, sometimes bidding, but often waiting.  If they really, really want just that house, they will go in early and strong, and close the deal.  If not, they wait and see.  At the end of their search, if that's the house they want, they need to outbid others to get it.

The idea is that things will sell, in most cases, for what they're worth.  There may be times when sellers get lucky, or buyers do, because of circumstances not created by them, but by the other party.  Most of the time, property goes for its fair value, because bidders will eventually come in and pay what they know it's worth. The moral?  It's not the listing price, it's the inherent value.  Put your property on low, and let buyers bid it up.  Just as in Ebay, if you can create a feeding frenzy, you will get more, and much more quickly, than if you list it too high.