Every Segment of the Market is Different

Not only is it hard to judge the quality of the Greater New Haven market by looking at national trends, you have to know town (and neighborhood), plus price range, in order to make a prediction about how quickly a property will sell.  Multiple offers are common on well-priced homes in towns without enough supply, and they are much more likely in price ranges frequented by first-time homebuyers.  And those price ranges are different where?  You guessed it-town to town, and neighborhood to neighborhood.

Even those parameters may not explain everything.  We've seen waterfront property fly off the market lately, mostly in the $1 to $2 million dollar category.  Some of that is by neighborhood, but I think it has more to do with the length of time since the last hurricane on our immediate coastline, plus the consequent lower prices we have been experiencing, which eventually have reached compelling levels.  If that's not squishy enough, there's also the stock market to consider-volatile markets, especially when they are high, tend to lead people to divest stocks and buy real estate.  That's both because they suddenly have more disposable cash, and because they are looking for a tangible place to put it.

All of this is by way of saying that you cannot simply look at Boston or NYC, and conclude that we must be a blend of those two markets.  One is hot, although cooling on the multi-offer scale (Boston), and the other is suffering from oversupply at the top end and a new mansion tax.  What to do?  Read local, shop local, and use a local Realtor!

Reaping the Rewards?

Now that the stock market has started to rally so strongly, maybe it’s time for people to take what they’ve made, and buy real estate instead.  In our region, prices are still very low, compared to even twenty years ago.  We used to have average home prices well above the national average, so that job recruits moving here were worried about finding affordable housing comparable to their previous homes.  Now, we are very close to the national average, and we haven’t gone up, in some areas, enough to cover the declines of the last decade.  Commercial prices have been bumping along, also not moving up over time.  Some industrial buildings are at prices equal to those of years ago.  While some towns have a shortage of smaller commercial spaces, others have empty big box stores, many of which could be repurposed.  We are very short on affordable housing in our region, and the gap keeps growing, as rents continue to rise.  Even as housing prices for homes have declined, rents have doubled, and many tenants are paying a percentage of their incomes for rental units that is considered to be onerous.

 

What does all this mean for buyers?  Real estate is, and always has been, cyclical to some extent.  Through the boom  years, we would say that what goes up, must come down.  Now it seems that the opposite should also be true:  What went down, will come back up.  There is still an opportunity in our area, which isn’t true in much of the country—especially the coasts—to get normal appreciation on purchases, given the current state of prices.  We know that investors have been increasingly drawn to our state, because of the high prices in Boston and NY.  Why would locals not invest as well?  While we’ve been reading about the woes of Connecticut, others have been coming from out of state and out of the country, and buying and buying.  With our deeper knowledge of the local market, we should be able to do better than they could.  So let’s make a resolution in 2019:  Buy local!

Financial Times Article

Yesterday, I posted an article from Financial Times of London, comparing the New Haven market to the Cambridge, MA one.  We lost.  I thought it was not a fair comparison.  New Haven is a very different place--it's a center city, with suburbs around it.  Cambridge IS a suburb, of Boston.  It seems to me that that makes them very different, with many more low-income areas in New Haven. 

Having lived in both places, I don't find them as disparate as the article would make them appear.  Harvard has always had a very good PR image, and has managed to weather bad news without making as many headlines.  Most people would no more walk through Cambridge Common after dark than stroll across the New Haven Green.  Yet, somehow, the national media has always presented New Haven as a dangerous place in which to live or attend school, while Cambridge comes across as a trendy, high-end metropolis.  Granted, Yale has more high-crime areas within walking distance than Cambridge does, but the subway system in Boston has the potential to deliver crime there as well.  My old dorm had an incident a few years ago, where someone was killed after a student opened the gate for a "townie" (yes, Harvard now locks its gates as well). 

It is true that Cambridge has two major institutions--Harvard and MIT--compared to New Haven's Yale, and that the biotech spinoff effect is therefore twice as great.  It's also true that dual-career couples have a somewhat easier time both finding jobs in the Boston area (although New Haven offers the possibility of NYC).  Real estate values are indeed higher in Cambridge, especially since Massachusetts is undoubtedly further along in its recovery from the Great Recession.  Yet I would argue that both are residential hubs, with lively nightlife, lots of educational institutions, and plenty to do.  I would even give New Haven the edge in the arts, especially if you take Boston out of the equation.  There may be statistical truth to the article, but it presents a very one-sided look at the numbers, in my opinion.