No More Seasonal Rules

I've blogged before about how similar the Madison, Wisconsin market often seems to be to the Greater New Haven area, and so I await with interest my friend Dave Stark's musings on his region. Like those of us in other places, he seems to have given up on predicting using the usual rules.  He's been up and down, month by month, and not following the seasonal patterns we've all come to expect.  Although our months don't track exactly with his, we also have seen several years of ups and downs that don't seem to match the weather, the school calendar, or the interest rates.  Our summer has been busier, but who knows what fall will bring?

That leads me to Dave's advice to buyers and sellers, which I heartily endorse.  He points out that sellers, just as they have here, have been getting very high ratios of listing to sales prices.  However, we should consider that many people are more reasonable than they once were, so prices are higher in some areas, but not climbing in many parts of our market.  Therefore, with low inventories, sellers are doing well, but only with good prices, as seen by buyers.  They are additionally helped by more millennial buyers coming into homeownership for the first time.

Buyers have been helped by interest rates that keep failing to climb as we all expected.  Even normal seasonal shifts have not been easy to predict.  It does keep us all saying, though, that buying while rates are low--and who knows how long that will be--is key to getting the home you want at the monthly payment you can afford.  Therefore, we would all advise buyers to get into the game, as soon as is possible.

Whether it's Wisconsin or Connecticut, you'll have to check back to see whether things turned out the way we expected.  We can all agree that predictions are harder to make than ever!

Rates Are Creeping Up

Here's a shout out to all those buyers out there who are waiting to be sure that real estate prices have hit bottom:  You may succeed in buying when prices have passed the bottom, but you may lose on rates.  Although the Fed has signaled that it won't be raising its rates any time soon, the mortgage rates are more creatures of supply and demand, as well as bank appetites for new loans.  Rates also tend to follow a seasonal pattern--lowest at election time (what a surprise!), and higher in the busiest spring buying season).

 I get rates sent to me on a weekly basis, and it's clear that they are headed up.  If you have waited this long to buy, don't make the mistake of continuing to wait.  They may go back down in the fall, but, by then, prices will have risen.  Buyers have increasingly begun to think of the cost of housing as the cost of the monthly payment, since that matters far more to them than the actual price of the home at any given time.  Not only are mortgage rates heading higher, but insurance and taxes have risen in most places as well.  Buy now, or regret it later!