Buying in Connecticut May Be the Better Option Over Renting

 In many parts of the country, renting is cheaper than buying.  Connecticut, especially Greater New Haven, is not typical.  Thanks to years--decades--of languishing prices, we are no longer an expensive place to buy a house.  On the other hand, given our student population, and our arts/culture hub, we are one of the hottest rental markets across the United States.  In fact, the last survey we saw showed us as second!

What does that mean for buyers?  It still is affordable for many to purchase, especially given the interest rates.  Although there is a lot of competition, it is largely local, except for maybe the Shoreline.  The rental market, thanks to Yale, is international.  Listings are creeping up, and offers have been slightly slower to come in.  Competitively, then, it's a little easier to buy.

Will there still be appreciation?  It appears that millennials will be forming households at a rapid rate going forward.  Even though we have been told how different they are than their parents and grandparents, they seem to want many of the same things in a home, especially during the pandemic.  So the supply going forward should keep prices up for years to come.  There hasn't been much home construction for a long time, and that, right now at least, is backed up with regard to both supplies and labor.  

What should sellers do?  There is still a need for more product, so keep those listings coming.  Don't be greedy, and don't count your chickens before they hatch--a lot can happen before a closing takes place.  You will, however, be in a great position to buy when prices are lowest, at the end of the year, if you sell now.  

And Labor Day, the start of the fall market, is just around the corner for everyone!

Home for the Holidays

Although I write almost every year about the best time to buy a home--between Halloween and Thanksgiving--and the reason is that people are very motivated to sell at that point, I should also mention that there is one other tip.  If you have a home that is decorated beautifully for the holidays each year, and it is in mint condition, there are always some buyers that have to get a home before the beginning of the new year, usually for job-related reasons, and they are among the most motivated buyers that we see all year.  They're in a hurry, are anxious to get through with the process so that they too can celebrate the holidays, and aren't interested in doing extra work to a new home.  Anything new on the market, that shows well and needs no work, is prime for this type of buyer.  So don't assume that you can't sell your home before spring.  Just think realistically about the effort involved, the showings you'll have to be flexible about, and about the premium you might receive for that extra push.  It just might be worth it. 

Rates Are Creeping Up

Here's a shout out to all those buyers out there who are waiting to be sure that real estate prices have hit bottom:  You may succeed in buying when prices have passed the bottom, but you may lose on rates.  Although the Fed has signaled that it won't be raising its rates any time soon, the mortgage rates are more creatures of supply and demand, as well as bank appetites for new loans.  Rates also tend to follow a seasonal pattern--lowest at election time (what a surprise!), and higher in the busiest spring buying season).

 I get rates sent to me on a weekly basis, and it's clear that they are headed up.  If you have waited this long to buy, don't make the mistake of continuing to wait.  They may go back down in the fall, but, by then, prices will have risen.  Buyers have increasingly begun to think of the cost of housing as the cost of the monthly payment, since that matters far more to them than the actual price of the home at any given time.  Not only are mortgage rates heading higher, but insurance and taxes have risen in most places as well.  Buy now, or regret it later!

When the Heat Goes On, the Price Comes Down

As I put on my first long-sleeve shirt of the season to go running this morning, I reflected on what the changing weather means for real estate.  Although spring is the traditional listing and buying season, based on the school year schedule, Labor Day brings a bump that lasts until about Thanksgiving.  For sellers, the first time that they think about heating a home that's empty, or one that's too big, they also begin to worry about freezing pipes, snowplowing, and all the downsides of winter.  We are not unaccustomed to getting calls from sellers, who previously had been saying that they were not in a hurry and didn't have to sell, asking why there have been no offers.  At that point, they are often willing to get serious about pricing their property to move quickly.  Of course, we remind them that they have a window before winter, which is quickly disappearing.

If you are a buyer, this is when you should be serious also.  It can take longer to close during holiday season, so don't take too long to make your offers and sign your contracts.  The end of the year is rapidly approaching.  Take advantage of this time to buy a great home at a good price with a low mortgage rate!

Interest Rate Update

Now that the weather has moderated a little, we're starting to see some activity in the real estate market. One question on everyone's mind is the forecast for interest rates over the next few months. It's particularly true for those who are refinancing, since some banks allow you to take one "drop" between commitment and closing. Therefore, people want to know whether rates will go down more.

Of course, the correct answer is: Who knows? But I think most betting people feel that the governmental stimulus and drive to improve the economy will result in incentives of every kind that could possibly help the housing market. That would argue for lower rates to come. I don't think they'll be much lower, or for much longer, since banks are paying 5% for the TARP money. So how long can they really afford to loan it out at less than 5%?

So, if they are going to go down to 4 and 1/2, even for a little while, why not wait? The answer to that lies in the fine print. Fannie Mae, which drives a lot of bank lending policy, has quietly been raising the standards on loans. FICO credit scores to qualify for the best rates are rising, and higher rates are imposed when there is a higher loan-to-value ratio being sought. Translation: The rate might be slightly lower for some amount of time, but it will be harder for most people without excellent credit and enough cash for a substantial downpayment to qualify for that rate. When you take those factors into account, you will almost certainly come down on the side of buying or refinancing as soon as possible.

I should point out, in the nature of a disclaimer, that I do not have Obama's private Blackberry address, so these thoughts are my own, based upon reading public materials! And, given all that's going on, I'm sure there will be more news to follow.

Time to Reprice that Listing

There's a term in real estate called "chasing the market down", and it refers to people who start out by pricing their listings too high, and then continue to lower them month by month. It's a strategy that many sellers employ, and we agents are not immune to it ourselves, but the results are almost always poor. We can cite example after example of buildings and houses that sold BELOW what they would have sold for, if they'd only started out at the correct price. Now, I realize that "correct" is a term of art, and subject to disagreement. I also realize how tempting it is just to "test the market" at a high number. But you have to understand how the selling process works in order to see what a mistake it is.

A listing receives most attention when it's new, for a number of reasons. We notice signs when they're just erected. We notice pictures in ads when they're different from prior weeks. The same is true of the website. Also, agents and buyers who are receiving notifications of new listings are focusing on the ones that they haven't seen before. Most mailings are done on new listings. Most showings come as soon as something comes on the market. Everyone is motivated to see, consider, and buy something before it gets snatched up by someone else.

What that means for sellers is that you have wasted the most valuable exposure that your listing will receive. It's the same principle as the old saying that "you only get one chance to make a first impression". Every time the price comes down later, agents and buyers will have a subliminal impression that your property is overpriced, or that there's something wrong with it, since it's been on the market for so long. Why would you risk that, when our experience shows that people whose homes sell quickly for a lower price ultimately receive more than people who start out high, in order to "leave room to negotiate" or "see what they can get".

The moral is clear: If you're serious about selling, be serious from the start. Don't waste your time, your agent's time, or the attention span of the buying public. Consumers now are far more educated about prices, with the advent of the Internet. They'll know when you've entered the market with an attractive price, and your chances of selling, and selling quickly, will ratchet up. Take the money and move on. Buy another property while rates are low. Time is money.

Right now, our agents feel that almost 90% of our listings are priced too high to sell right away. Some of that is because, with declining prices, what was a good price 90 days ago may be too high now. Some is because there's just not enough selling right now (for example, only two houses closed in Madison in November). However, a great deal is because people don't understand what I just described above. You will have an advantgage--one you need in a difficult economy--if you do.