What’s Causing the Current Housing Market Uptick?

It seemed for some years that Connecticut, alone among almost all the states, would never see the benefits of a better residential real estate market.  While recovery is spotty, both in terms of price and number of units, there has definitely been a feeling of optimism all year.  Despite a bitter winter, sales began early and continued strong.  Despite talk of fiscal woes, and estate taxes especially, in Connecticut, people were looking.  And, despite the recent Federal tax act, with its threat of limiting property tax deductions for blue states, they are buying.

The strongest correlation between the housing market and the economy has always been, for us, the consumer confidence index.  When people feel bullish about the future, the real estate sector gets stronger.  Consumer confidence has jumped this year, and we can tell.  Even though many uncertainties exist for taxpayers, employers and employees, and all Americans, homeowners and would-be homeowners are apparently responding to a few clear points:  We can see upward pressure on wages, in part because unemployment is low; interest rates, although there has been some movement, remain very favorable, and mortgage availability has eased in some areas; and, perhaps most importantly, the stock market has created a great deal of new wealth, and many stockholders think that they should cash out, at least partially, while their gains are still high, and that money has to go somewhere.  Real estate, with its versatility of use (investment, vacation, or primary residence), its tangibility, its prominent place in the defining of the American dream, and its centrality in life passages and aspirations, fits the that bill for many.

Don’t think that real estate professionals are crying wolf when we urge fiscal prudence in State and local spending, or when we call for repeal of onerous provisions in Connecticut’s estate tax, because the tide could turn again, if consumers once again switch to pessimism about the future.  For now, though, it appears that buyers are planning to “seize the day” and diversify into property.  And that’s good news for sellers, and all of us.

Up or Down?

Don Klepper-Smith, our local economist, recently published a press release, quoting the Register, which was quoting the Commercial Record (yes, I know, therein most likely lies the problem).  Anyway, by the time Don repeated this chain of statistics, he reported that the health of the economy in Greater New Haven had gone drastically south in the month of March (of course, most people here wanted to go south last month, but I'm talking numbers now).  He picked out the trends in consumer confidence and job loss as being particularly problematic, and causing our region to buck the national positive trend line.  He went on to say that housing was the single bright spot in the figures, and that the median price for single-family homes had risen by $45,000 last month.  That seemed so improbable to me that I called the Commercial Record to check.

According to them, February's numbers showed a huge increase in the median sales price, combined with a steep decline in the number of sales, so the particular mix of the lesser number of sales seems to have affected the price for that month.  For the year so far, total sales are down, unlike most parts of the country.  When I had them check March, the median sales price had evened out, and was almost the same as it had been in 2012, but the number of sales was again way down. When I asked the reporter what she made of these numbers, she said that most places in the country are now reporting that sales are not increasing as rapidly as they had been, nor are prices rising as rapidly, but she said that Connecticut clearly is lagging behind other states.  She attributed that to state budget woes.

So, to recap this confusing report:  The recovery appears to be sputtering in our region, although it is not as robust in other places as it has been for the past few months.  Here, we are seeing prices that are flat to slightly down, which puts us behind everywhere else, with 2013 numbers that are far below 2012's.  I'm going with weather as the cause of that, although state problems and consumer confidence are quite possible alternative explanations.  Let's hope it gets better soon, and I'm betting that the weather improves before the State solves its fiscal issues!

First-time Buyers

There are lots of first-time buyers in the market now, and they are driving the action.  It's clear that it's harder to get a mortgage now than it was when those of us who are older bought our first homes, and the qualification standards are stiffer, even though rates are lower.

Because they are buying for the first time, they are often more hesitant to buy in situations where they might not feel comfortable.  Therefore, they often request more in the way of repairs, tests, and allowances for improvements.  In addition, having buyers ask for contributions to closing costs is a trend that we have seen in increasing numbers.  Sellers should not be insulted, since first-time buyers have no history, so no way of knowing that such a proposition might seem aggressive.

Since beginning buyers often look at more options, open houses have been very popular.  There may also be more repeat showings, with relatives and friends coming to weigh in on the potential purchase.  The closing can take longer as well, since documentation requests may be unfamiliar and take more time to fulfill.

Whatever the downsides, there is a great upside:  They are very motivated to buy and own their own homes, and they are out there!

It's Time for a New Year and a New Attitude

Much of what's been published about recent consumer trends and confidence is very encouraging.  Even the real estate news is improving.  Car sales went up at the end of 2011, and both online and retail holiday sales were very strong, compared to projections.  Can there be any doubt that, in 2012, real estate sales will follow?

So now the question for prospective buyers is:  Do you want to be ahead of or behind the curve?  Once all the signs for improvement are in place, you know that it's only a matter of time before prices start to rise.  You also know that, due to tightening mortgage requirements everywhere, and the hurricane and freak snowstorm locally, there is a lot of pent-up demand waiting to be satisfied.  There are also a lot of folks on the sidelines, just holding off until they know that the economy is on the mend. 

Given those variables, you can put your oar into the water first, and get the best price, or you can stand still until you see other people starting to move, and then try to beat them.  It's your choice, but I think the correct answer is clear!

Where Retail Goes, Will Real Estate Follow?

Retailers seem very happy with sales so far this holiday season.  Even booksellers, according to today's New York Times, have been seeing big increases.  Given the lackluster sales in the past few seasons, this seems to indicate that consumers have loosened their purse strings.

What does that mean for real estate?  While the fact that someone will buy a book doesn't necessarily mean that they will buy a house, the fact that someone won't buy a book almost certainly means that they will not make a large purchase like a house.  So it's a prerequisite that consumers have to feel more confidence before the real estate market will improve.  Hopefully, we're almost there.  Given the historic low interest rates, it's hard to believe that we haven't gotten there already.  Perhaps the start of a new year will push us over into a seller's market, or at least into a balanced one.

Be Patriotic--Buy Some Real Estate

Happy Fourth of July! The front page of last Thursday's New York Times showed the results of a poll of Americans regarding their feelings about real estate. Not surprisingly, it indicated that a big majority of those polled believe that owning real estate is still the American dream, and that it would be their choice, even though those same people were more divided as to the safety of such an investment.

It used to be that almost everyone believed that buying a house was the best and safest thing to do with their money. Their faith in the second half of that statement has been shaken by the recent financial crisis, but the first half is undeniably still true. Even those who do not own homes believe in the mortgage deduction's importance, and hope that the primacy of real estate will remain steady.

That's good news for the future of the economy. While we realize that there is still work to be done in convincing people to put down their deposits and buy, it's clear that they wish to be convinced to act. It also seems true that they would be happy to find reasons to do so. When that's the case, it's important to find ways to get people off the fence. Once those who are not absolutely required to sell begin to do so, others will follow. The consumer confidence necessary for that isn't there right now. It's up to government, unfortunately, to find a way to make that so. Jobs have to be created, and the future needs to look a little brighter. But the underpinnings are there. The beliefs remain.

So this Fourth of July, while you are watching the fireworks and soaking up the sun, make plans to get out there soon and buy some real estate. It's the patriotic thing to do!

Where Have All the Buyers Gone?

The national news, as well as area papers, are full of stories about the abrupt dropoff in housing sales for May. Everyone knew that this might happen when the tax credits expired, but the amount of the decline is still surprising to people. After all, many families did not qualify for the credits, which decreased as income increased. Also, although the second round of credits applied to repeat buyers, it was always aimed at first-time buyers. They bought, but probably mostly in the first round, from what we could see. Ordinarily, first-time buyers make up about 45% of the total market for sales. With the tax credit, that percentage had increased to 55%. Even though that means that we have moved 10% of the sales from the future into the present (now the past) with the help of tax credits, there is still almost half of the buying population unaccounted for in these numbers.

Where did they go? It seems that consumer confidence, once again, has reared its ugly head. All the news reports about job losses, retail sales, and the stock market have affected homebuyers negatively. While we knew that this could happen--it's some version of the double-dip theory--it still surprises those of us in real estate, to some extent.

Interest rates are very low. Housing prices are back down, in many cases, to where they were several years ago. Everyone knows that, even if you sell low, it doesn't matter, as long as you also buy low. Consumers have stayed out of the fray for most of the tumultuous recent past. So they should be out in force, and they're not.

One theory is that there's too much on the market, and therefore they have paralysis. Another is that they think prices will continue to decline. It is true that mortgages are harder to get. And, of course, it's summer--hot and humid weather tends to keep people from doing all but the essential tasks of life.

However, we're all watching with bated breath. The housing industry cannot afford a long layoff from sales, as we endured at the beginning of last year. Congress, take note!

First Quarter Market Statistics

Our crack internet team has just finished compiling statistics on sales and prices in our region for the first quarter of 2010. Yes, it's true--the market is way up. Sales in New Haven county are up 34% over the same period last year. Prices fell 7%, which was less than they had been falling, and also reflects a shift in the mix of what's selling. The first-time homebuyer tax credit has the greatest impact in the lower price ranges, and that will make a difference. Also, the upper end of the market tends to be the most discretionary, and the lack of consumer confidence has had those buyers continuing to sit on the fence. If you'd like to see the full report, go to http://www.hpearce.com/, and pull down the Services tab to access Market Reports.

I just got back from a meeting of some of my peers, the presidents of other large independent real estate firms. Around the country, the news is much the same. Last year was so bad that we're all feeling better. We're all worried about what will happen when the tax credit disappears on Saturday, but we all agree that this second round has not been as effective in spurring sales. All of us have slashed costs, but know that a healthy company cannot survive in the long run by cutting expenses instead of increasing sales. We are fortunate here compared to markets like Reno, but even my friends there are seeing an improvement. Since 67% of their sales are foreclosures and short sales, that wouldn't be hard! We continue to be encouraged that independent firms are doing so well in competition with the franchises, and know that our ability to move quickly and make decisions has helped us immensely in this downturn. We were meeting in Davenport, Iowa, where the market never spiked the way ours did, so the landing has been much softer. There is a lot of activity there, and the average home price in some offices is about $90,000. That would be quite a bargain here!

Markets and Marathons

This posting is a little delayed, since I ran the Boston Marathon on Monday. The relief of having it over, plus the exhaustion, kept me from writing sooner! Every time I run a marathon, I think about how much it is like the real estate business. The basic foundation is the preparation. You have to put in the hours. Some naturally talented people seem exempt, and can run or sell without spending a lot of time getting ready, but the general rule is that you reap what you sow. The long 20-mile runs, or the late nights at the computer, pay off in the future. You can't just wing it.

There's also some amount of luck involved. Performance in a marathon depends greatly on the conditions of the day and the course--temperature, elevation changes, wind, and congestion on the course. It also matters how you feel on a given day, and you won't really know how you will do until you get to 20 miles or even beyond. Success in real estate depends on market conditions--we don't control interest rates, bank policies, political postions, or consumer confidence. Local economic factors, such as unemployment rates or business expansions, are also variables we can't change.

However, in both marathons and real estate markets, we can do the best with what we have. We have the same conditions as everyone else on the course, and we can outperform others with training and perseverance. We can be mentally tougher, and we can dig deeper. As the marathon really starts at 20 miles, salesmanship starts when the client says no.

Finding a way to succeed is crucial in both endeavors, but there's at least one difference: It doesn't hurt to walk when you finish selling a piece of real estate!

New Year, New Attitudes

Happy New Year! It is clear from watching the stock market that investors in that area have confidence about the future. In our business, we are looking forward to the same sort of sustained rise during 2010. I just returned from Arizona, where the number of sales has gone up quite a bit from the year before, although prices continue to lag and short sales are still very common. Since we are behind Arizona on the real estate curve, we can look there to see what's down the road for us.

What they are worried about is the glut of homes that could come up for sale if owners lose interest in trying to hold on to them while values are low. Moral suasion may not be enough to convince people to continue paying on mortgages that are underwater. There have recently been a number of articles about just that--homeowners moving into rentals and spending the difference in their monthly payments on trips and consumer goods. That's not good for real estate.

We will be somewhat protected from that phenomenon in Connecticut, I believe, since whatever happens on the West Coast and in Florida will most likely cause the government to take steps to prevent the spread of anything that might impede a general economic recovery, and before it gets to us. They took prompt action in the banking crisis, and the recent extension and expansion of the tax credit for homeowners is a good indication that real estate will be treated in much the same way. In addition, since we had nowhere near the amount of speculation and building as the South and Southwest, we are not in the position of having lots of empty houses and condos to fill. Sometimes it's not bad to suffer from slower growth!

In the meantime, we should take heart in the surge of interest in real estate in Arizona and other similar markets. Investors are buying, and there is activity. I talked to one agent who said that her experience there is bearing out what I've been preaching in this blog: Those properties that are priced correctly and are in good condition are hard to get, since they receive multiple bids early on. Although there is a great deal on the market, only homes and buildings considered to be good values are moving. So, if you want to sell, be sure that you are in that category. If you want to buy, get a jump on that trend and buy before the spring market and before the tax credit expires on April 30th.

Second Quarter Results

A little silver lining to the real estate cloud--our second quarter results show definite improvement over the statistics of the first quarter. It's still bad, but getting better. The whole Northeast is down about 13%, and this area is about the same. If you multiply that times the decrease in the average price, you get a decline of about 23% from last year. That number includes a lot of foreclosure real estate, which usually transfers at lower prices, so the H. Pearce numbers look better. Our second quarter was less than 10% off from the year before. It tells you something about the past couple of years that such a result would make us happy!

When asked what I thought would happen in the last half of the year, I predicted a further narrowing of the decline. Although prices may fall more in some areas, it looks as though activity will not go down further, due to a combination of consumer confidence and government support.

The numbers also seem to show that people who use a Realtor get more for their homes than people who do not. While this can be explained in a number of ways, I have little incentive to argue with it!

Lagging Statistics

Now that we're finally seeing some increase in the number of buyers and the resulting sales, the statistics for April are out. They show that prices fell and units fell. Not surprising, since that's reflecting activity from the first quarter. It doesn't measure today's pulse, but rather what was happening 60 to 90 days ago.

If we're lucky, the news will convince sellers not to be greedy, and buyers that it's a good time to get a reasonable price on the real estate they wish to own. It will let the government know that it can't stop trying to help the housing market. If we're lucky, it will not send everyone screaming for the hills, or more accurately, back into the cocoons where they have been hiding since last fall.

All of this does show the importance of the consumer confidence index, which is a measurement the government puts out on a periodic basis, to judge the mood of the buying public. Lately, this number has been at historic lows. The most recent results, however, have shown a sharp uptick in consumer confidence. We consider this number, along with personal income levels and interest rates, to be one of the three most important ways to predict the level of real estate sales. We could have told the press that sales would rise in May, after seeing the rise in consumer confidence. Since it's such a subjective measure, though, almost anything can affect it. That's why I'm hoping that the April sales numbers don't send it plummeting again.

Commercial Real Estate Update

It's worth a mention about what's happening in the commercial real estate arena these days. The answer is: nothing. The nation's banking woes, and the resulting credit crunch, have brought most real estate transactions to a screeching halt. Traditionally, there is a lag between the residential market performance and the commercial market performance of about nine to twelve months. I had an interesting discussion yesterday with an economist running buddy as to why this should be so, but it has been consistent over the past recessions as well. One might think that jobs and business profits would decline before housing sales, but it's usually the other way around. Residential sales can be predicted if you know personal income numbers, interest rates, and the consumer confidence index. Commercial real estate has more to do with credit, GNP, tax structure, and general business cycles, yet they do coincide and overlap this way.

Given the current state of the economy, pundits are not forecasting an improvement in commercial real estate this year. New Haven is lucky that so much of our space is occupied by Yale, but even mighty Yale has seen the effects of this market cycle, so we may not be as protected as we might otherwise have been. Our best protection is coming from a lack of new product, meaning that we don't have the see-through office buildings sitting empty, the way we did in the last recession. One of the worst problems is that there has been a fundamental shift in the way people work, causing companies with the same revenues to need less office space. That may not change back when the economy improves. Other new companies will have to spring up to take that space, and Connecticut's cost and tax structures have caused it to be at or near the bottom of new business creation. In our area, biotech has made our regional results somewhat better, but we should all do what we can to attract corporations and jobs to our region.

Appraisals

Now that consumer confidence has risen back to the point it was when Lehman Brothers failed, and the spring market has begun, we're starting to see some action. The new problem is that the houses under contract are not always "appraising out". That means that, when a buyer goes to get a mortgage, how much the bank will lend depends not only upon his or her credit score and income, but on an appraisal ordered by the bank before granting the loan. Most banks have an approved list of independent appraisers, who are sent out to examine properties with mortgage applications, and value them by comparing them to other similar properties that have recently sold. Therein lies the rub. What's a comparable property? What if nothing nearby has recently sold? What if the appraiser is from out of the area, and doesn't know which streets or neighborhoods are considered prime? All of those factors come into play, and sometimes the appraiser goes back to the bank with a value far below the sales price, even when there have been multiple offers of around the same amount on the property (which almost guarantees that the sales price is at least very close to the true value, since no buyer knows what another is offering).

When that happens, one of three things usually occurs: the bank orders another appraisal, which differs, and its internal processes allow the loan to go forward at the requested amount; the buyer backs out, due to inability to get a mortgage, and the property goes back on the market; or the parties renegotiate the sales price downward. In the current market, any of the three can happen. On a hot property, the first alternative is most likely. If the buyer does back out, it often sells again just as quickly. As Realtors, we hate to see the sale fall through, in part because someone looking won't necessarily know why it's back on the market, and it may decrease the desirability of the property (of course, to be honest, it also means that we are selling it twice for the same fee). This is particularly infuriating when we believe that the appraiser made a mistake. Some banks are more interested than others in taking a second look, and often local banks are more confident of values within their smaller footprint.

Whatever happens, it's just another bump along the road of selling property in today's market.

Optimism

Well, I felt a little ashamed as I read the front page article in today's New Haven Register Business section. I guess I'm more pessimistic than others about the Obama recovery plan, and let's hope I'm wrong. After all, the whole point is to make people WANT to buy; it doesn't even really matter whether or not the incentives even make sense. I also read in the New York Times today that most who listened to the President's speech last Tuesday were left with a positive impression of the government's current handling of the economy. That's good news.

I suppose I should be forgiven for being more down than most, since real estate would be at the bottom of anyone's list of thriving industries right now. However, in the end it doesn't matter what I think--it only matters whether others are spurred to action by the program. I have been saying that I think first-time homebuyers are the ones who least need incentives, since they have no history with which to compare today's conditions. In addition, they don't have houses to sell before they can buy. One could look at it another way, though: If those at the beginning of the chain go out and buy property, everyone further along can then sell and buy another property themselves.

As many have said, much of the current crisis comes from a lack of consumer confidence, which is now at its lowest rate since measurement began in 1967. Every recovery scenario depends upon getting that number up, since economics turns out to be more related to what people think in many cases than to what the graphs say. Most of us realize that a great deal hinges on jobs, since almost no one will buy what they don't need if they think they might not have a job in the near future. Convincing people that jobs will be preserved and created is key, and, unfortunately, can't be done in one location or in one sector of the economy.

The next few weeks, which take us into the traditional spring buying and selling season, will be critical for any hope of a real estate recovery this year. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, but you shouldn't bother doing that--just go out and buy some property!