Don't Count on Selling Above the Market Value

 What is it that people say about the stock market?  "Bulls get rich, bears get rich, but pigs get slaughtered".  Things are only worth what they're worth, and real estate is no different.  If a seller tries to take advantage of a tight market by overpricing, it might work, but, more times than not, it won't.  If it does work, it will usually be because multiple buyers are bidding on the same property.

Even then, reason mostly prevails, often the next morning, or when the appraisal comes in.  Although many people are either downsizing, or have saved extra money during the past 18 months, they still will be resistant to paying over the appraised value, despite what they might be putting down (which could even be the whole amount).  Even cash buyers regularly ask for appraisals, just to check that they are not "overpaying".  Although we know that that's a subjective term, and that appraisals can lag in a rising market, people still want to be validated for their business judgment.  If they think they may be getting taken advantage of, they will balk at some point.

Lately, we've been seeing a good number of homes coming back onto the market, after going under contract.  Sure, there are some bad inspections, and some mistakes about how much can be financed, but there are also cold feet, and they often relate to the aftermath of a bidding war or feeding frenzy.  Buyers get caught up in wanting to "win" the house, then wonder whether they have overpaid.

All of this is by way of saying that sellers, who have a short selling season for the next two months or so, should be wary of overpricing.  A good value will get snapped up, and will sometimes even have backup offers, but a property that looks to buyers as though it will sit for a while may do just that.  If there's no perceived risk of losing the purchase, there's no urgency.  And we all know that lack of urgency kills transactions.  Thinking too much about anything will bring out all the negative points.  So don't go there.  Price your home to sell.  Listen to your agent.  You'll thank him/her later!

Buying in Connecticut May Be the Better Option Over Renting

 In many parts of the country, renting is cheaper than buying.  Connecticut, especially Greater New Haven, is not typical.  Thanks to years--decades--of languishing prices, we are no longer an expensive place to buy a house.  On the other hand, given our student population, and our arts/culture hub, we are one of the hottest rental markets across the United States.  In fact, the last survey we saw showed us as second!

What does that mean for buyers?  It still is affordable for many to purchase, especially given the interest rates.  Although there is a lot of competition, it is largely local, except for maybe the Shoreline.  The rental market, thanks to Yale, is international.  Listings are creeping up, and offers have been slightly slower to come in.  Competitively, then, it's a little easier to buy.

Will there still be appreciation?  It appears that millennials will be forming households at a rapid rate going forward.  Even though we have been told how different they are than their parents and grandparents, they seem to want many of the same things in a home, especially during the pandemic.  So the supply going forward should keep prices up for years to come.  There hasn't been much home construction for a long time, and that, right now at least, is backed up with regard to both supplies and labor.  

What should sellers do?  There is still a need for more product, so keep those listings coming.  Don't be greedy, and don't count your chickens before they hatch--a lot can happen before a closing takes place.  You will, however, be in a great position to buy when prices are lowest, at the end of the year, if you sell now.  

And Labor Day, the start of the fall market, is just around the corner for everyone!

Calling All Real Estate Listings

Who thought that prices would actually get stronger during a pandemic?  It's not that surprising, when you realize that life goes on, jobs change, and people retire.  They all need to buy and sell, and there just isn't much out there for them to choose.  We have adapted to the post-COVID world as best we can, and are still selling; however, we need more product in order to sell more houses.

The beginning of May has always been a busy time in real estate.  This year is no exception, except that we haven't seen the burst of listings that usually accompany the first flowers of spring.  With little product coming on, some older listings have even gotten multiple offers, even after long periods on the market.  It's clear that, if we had more to sell, we could sell more.

So, if you've been on the fence, now is the time to get off.  The coronavirus restrictions are not going to go away completely for some time to come, and the spring season should give a boost to thoughts of moving.  In addition, good weather makes it easier to social distance, when the outside of a property can be used for parts of showings.  It's also a good time to do home repairs or sprucing up and painting.  Life goes on, and real estate is going on too.  Don't be left behind--act now!

Confusing Inventory

I just read in a real estate publication somewhere that at least 40% of the listings on the market are either overpriced or overexposed, leaving the true inventory at a much lower level.  That's an important concept to point out, since we have been in a buyers' market for a long time, and many buyers feel that there is so much to choose from that they can lowball anything. 

Although there are many listings that do not sell quickly, and some that end up getting withdrawn before they ever sell, many others go quickly, often with multiple offers.  How can both those things be true?  It has to do with the ease and speed of getting information about housing.  Buyers and potential buyers can put themselves on search lists, and can potentially find out about new offerings before their agent gets informed.  Since it's human nature to get excited about the new and exciting, buyers commonly look at the most recent listings.  If they see enough activity on a property, or if they just know from having looked at so many houses that a certain one will go right away, they may proceed to an offer.  This is exacerbated in seasons where people traditionally move or relocate, so that the normal pattern of looking and waiting gets disrupted, and what is going to sell sells quickly.

That doesn't necessarily mean that sellers shouldn't list at an off-time, since the supply will typically be much lower, and those looking may consider a property that they otherwise would pass over.  However, the general rule that activity breeds more activity holds true, and sales proceed at a faster pace when the timing seems more urgent.  

My advice to buyers is to consider the true value of a property to you, and try to put your market information (or misinformation, in some cases) into the background.  Move at a reasonable speed, both to keep the seller engaged, and to appear more serious.  For sellers, I would say that you have to consider the micromarket that your home is in, and put aside the broader picture.  Listen to your agent, and remember what s/he said at the very beginning was the price that the property would bring.  It's right more often than you might think!  So, even if you've "tested" a higher price, don't get wedded to it, and don't wait too long to lower it, if you are not seeing action at your current listing price.  After all, money is lost when a sale is delayed, and that's important to consider as well.  

Bidding in a Market with Tight Inventory

Currently, the Greater New Haven market is experiencing a shortage of inventory in some price ranges.  Although most of the country has been like this for a while, it has been a long time since it has occurred in Connecticut.  Many local buyers are not accustomed to needing to, or may not even believe that they need to, compete with other offers.  Some people that real estate agents mislead potential buyers about other buyers, in order to encourage interested parties to act quickly, or bid higher.  We are amazed now at how often a house that has been on the market for months, without any interest, suddenly may have two or even three parties competing to buy it.  Once a certain point in the spring has been reached, people feel that they have seen most of what might be coming on, so that they no longer feel that they should wait. Of course, homes that are well-priced and desirable attract interest, and usually these days multiple offers, almost right away.

So my advice to buyers is simple, and fairly obvious.  First, make a list of what you require in a house.  Keep a running preference order for what you’ve already seen, with your first three choices clear.  If those choices don’t change every time you go out, it’s probably time to stop looking. Be honest with yourself, and your agent, about your limits.  It’s amazing how often people tell us their upper price range, and then exceed it. Then, make the cleanest offer you can, with the fewest contingencies and for the shortest amount of time.  Assume that there is other interest in the property,  and follow this important rule:  Bid the highest amount that you would be sorry to hear that someone else paid.  If your reaction to a later record of the sales price is that you couldn’t, or wouldn’t, have matched it, then you did the right thing.  If your immediate thought (never mind what you told your agent about the highest you would go) is that you would have paid that price, then you should have bid more.

Report from Denver

I just returned from a meeting of similar companies from around the country, held this time in Denver.  We always poll the group about market trends, and there was a great deal of commonality this year. Inventory, or the lack thereof, is the driver in most of the United States.  Even Connecticut is short on supply in the lower price ranges, and in the healthy range for all but the million plus category.  That higher supply in more expensive homes is also true in most areas around the country, but the real story is that starter homes and homes under about $500,000 have marketing times that are measured in days in most communities.  This is driving up prices, which hasn't happened here as often yet, although we are seeing it with well-maintained and desirable homes.  Mortgage rates are headed up as well, so time matters for many lookers.

Another big trend is in marketing.  With the exception of certain kinds of direct mail, mostly postcards about homes just listed or recently sold, advertising is going digital at a rapid rate.  We in Greater New Haven spent more on newspaper ads than almost anyone else, and very few did print advertising at all anymore.  Digital ads (SEM) or organic search tools (SEO) dominate the field, along with costs of website improvements and video production. Lead generation is front and center, often focused simply on how to track leads. Some are even spending money to appear in the answers given by Alexa!

Some things haven't changed much.  Personal relationships still account for most agent transactions, and, although people search for an agent on line (and pay a lot of attention to client testimonials), they are often starting with a recommendation from someone they know.  Good agents still generate a lot of repeat business, and good agents are doing more and more of the total transactions.  Real estate is an expensive business to be in for agents and for brokers (lately, even agents might feel sorry for the pressure put on broker returns!), and more is sold by a few top agents than ever before.  As the market improves, more people are going into the business again, and they are more likely to be younger, but the industry as a whole skews old and non-diverse.

Companies are also consolidating, so that megafirms are more and more a dominant force.  Teams have mostly taken the place of small firms,  and are run as companies within companies.  Legal and ethical compliance are big reasons for this tightening of the market, along with cost drivers that favor economies of scale.  One-half of one percent of brokers did a third of all the business in the last year reported.

Buyers haven't varied in their desires as much as most thought they would, given the demographic profiles we see.  Gen Xers and Millennials nationally still favor traditional homes with outdoor space, and in good school districts.  That's good news for sellers, although the younger buyers are much more concerned with maintenance and walkability scores.  Since there hasn't been enough new housing built in many regions, buyers will eventually have to buy what sellers have to sell, at least in the short run.

What are the takeaways here?  Almost everyone thinks that mortgage rates will rise, and prices will rise as well, making now the time to buy.  This is especially true at the high end of the market.  Buyers will still want personal assistance in navigating home ownership, and sellers want that touch as well. Therefore, we will be reaching out to them in new and different ways, but with the same message:  We're here to help.

It's Hopping Out There Now!

March certainly came in like a lion, and we haven't seen the lamb yet, but the real estate market thinks that it's spring (which, tomorrow, it technically is).  New listings are popping up, with buyers hot on the trail of the new homes.  Many properties are going under contract very quickly, although there could be impediments arising that haven't appeared yet.

We are finally seeing the lack of supply that the rest of the country has been seeing for the past couple of  years.  Our traditionally slow season has been very busy, with sales much higher than usual for the past four months.  For example, we have closed more than twice as many residential sales in the past two months than we did in the same time period last year.  In addition, the lack of supply is causing prices to rise, at long last.  For the same period, we saw prices increase by 30%.  Even though we are only looking at two months, that is building off of a November and December much above the prior year as well.

If you are a seller, please consider listing as quickly as you possibly can, for the best chance of selling your property at a good price.  If you are a buyer, you should be actively pursuing houses that interest you, and you should assume that time is of the essence on offers and notifications.  We have seen examples of higher offers coming in before earlier offers, which had been verbally accepted, got signed, and we don't want to see that happening to you.  The old paradigm of "take your time, and more will be available next week, and maybe even something you like better" (which I refer to as the Tinder issue), is definitely gone.

So we are all looking forward to a busy and productive spring season!

Be Prepared to Jump

One of the toughest things for us to combat over the past few years has been the sense that buyers have had, that they can take all the time they want to, while making decisions.  It seemed to many that, not only would the same property be available, but that others that might be as good or better would come along all the time.  That made it difficult to put transactions together.

Now we seem to be joining the rest of the country in having low inventory.  In many price ranges, there simply isn't enough available to satisfy the demand.  This is particularly true at the first-time homebuyer price points.  In some places around the country, time on the market is measured in hours, or perhaps in days.  We're not used to that here, to say the least.

Buyers need to get ready to make decisions on homes that they see, before others make offers, or at the same time.  It helps to have a list of things that must be true about a new home you would buy, in order of how important each item is.  It's also really useful to rank each home as you see it, and, while remembering that nothing is perfect, to eliminate any that do not bump off any of your current top three choices.

Sometimes, it can be crucial to have someone on hand to evaluate changes or additions that you would require, and get a price right away.  Arranging inspections quickly can also give you an advantage, as well of course as a prequalification.  The most important factor, however, is your own willingness to pull the trigger.  More people regret not making an offer in time, than they do those that they make.

This is the point at which I come back to one of my favorite pieces of advice:  Bid the amount that you would be unhappy to hear that it sold for, to someone else.  That's your true estimate of the property's value to you.  And be prepared to come to that number in relatively short order.  That's becoming more important every day in our current market.

Forget the Calendar

After a bitterly cold and snowy first half to our winter in Greater New Haven, we can look at our sales for the past few months and know one thing for sure:  The old rule that bad weather ruins real estate sales isn't true any longer.  In fact, both December and January were blockbuster months for us at Pearce.

Some of that could relate to tax changes, and some of that should relate to rising interest rates (sadly, we know that no one believes that rates will rise until they start to do so); however, the rest seems to have come from a spike in activity that began in late October.  That's far later than prior "fall markets" started, but is in line with what is closing now.  It seems to be about more than tax and mortgage changes, and has to do with a sense of urgency that didn't exist for a long time.

In almost every part of the country, lack of inventory is driving what is clearly a sellers' market in most places.  That is pushing up prices, lowering days on market, and creating a feeding frenzy.  Connecticut has been very late to this party, but we are finally showing up.  There isn't much to show in many price ranges, millennials are coming to the fore, and market fluctuations are pushing buyers off the fence.  We've seen this in commercial markets as well; in fact,  in our region, it's stronger there, at the moment.

So what do we do with the traditional model, where homes get listed early in May, sold in June, and closed in July and August?  Throw it out?  Probably so.  For at least the foreseeable future, our Greater New Haven academic market heats up early in the year, stops dead around graduation, and picks up again in late fall, when the semester has settled in.  That's great news for sellers who are ready to list now.  Don't let us stop you--it's the time to move!

Current Absorption Rates

Explanation of absorption rate: The rate at which available homes are sold in a specific real estate market during a given time period. If you look at the number for Branford you can say “If market conditions do not change and if no new listings come on the market it will take 7.3 months for the current inventory to sell at the current pace of the market. A balanced market’s absorption rate is typically between 5 - 7 months.”

Report from NYC

Once again, I've met with colleagues from around the country, this time in New York City.  That market is much softer than in the past few years, especially at the upper end (although their upper end is so high that we can't even imagine sales at those prices!).  In fact, the upper end everywhere, whatever that means in a particular market, has slowed down considerably.  Supply exceeds demand, and is often over a year or more in quantity; here, that supply is much higher.  In Middlesex and New Haven counties, 5 homes over $2 million had sold by July, and there were 87 active listings in that price range on the market.  Just do the math.

On the lower end of price ranges, almost every company reported that sales were being affected by lack of inventory.  In some places, that meant that the supply of homes could be measured in days.  Again, we have more supply in our market, but even we feel that there are not enough homes in very good condition and under $300,000 in some places.

When you go to a meeting that has national representation, you can really see how far behind Connecticut lags, in almost every category--job growth, population, birth rate, home prices, and home sales.  We need to get our act together, and sooner rather than later.  Having said that, NYC is not the boom town of the past few years, and agents there complained that sellers wanted last year's prices, while buyers wanted next year's prices.  That's food for thought for sellers here, as well.

Rental Rates Reach the Sky in New Haven

A recent article announced that the penthouse apartment in the old Union Trust building has just rented for $6200 per month, a new record as far as we know.  There have also been very high reported numbers for smaller apartments in other buildings.  New Haven is becoming full of luxury apartments, and the parade doesn't look as though it's ending any time soon.  Several more projects have just come on the market, or are on the drawing board.

Despite the increase in supply, New Haven shows up on lists of places where buying is cheaper than renting, because rental rates have gone up at least 50% over the past ten years, while house purchase prices have declined over the same period.  If you include the effect of the current low interest rates, it's really a bargain to buy here.  We are at the top of rental market boom towns, and at the bottom of recent home price appreciation areas.

Of course, buying makes more sense if housing prices stop declining, and there are signs that that is happening.  The signs that Realtors see include lower listing inventories and multiple offers on newly-listed properties.  Over time, we are also beginnnig to see year over year appreciation in certain towns and categories, and problems with purchases "appraising out".  This is an industry term that means that accepted offers are coming in higher than appraisers think fair market value is (always an indicator that prices are rising, since appraisals, which compare recent sales to pending contracts, obviously lag the market when it is rising--if prices were declining, recent sales would be higher, and everything would appraise for more than the contracted price).

If you take these two factors together--rising rents and an improving market for sales--and you throw in mortgage rates as they are today, it seems that any rational person would choose to buy right now, unless they were only going to be here for a short time, unless they didn't have a down payment or a good credit score.  But the bargains will only last for so long, so act quickly!

How Do We Give Pricing Advice Today?

In my last blog post, I wrote about how Connecticut's real estate market has diverged from the rest of the country's situation.  There are many reasons for that, and they've been well documented.  That begs the question, though, of what the real problems in the real estate arena are for professionals now.  We are having trouble getting buyers and sellers on the same page. 


There is definitely a market for well-priced homes, especially those that are within reach of first-time homebuyers.  Although the strength of the recovery varies from town to town, and even from submarket to submarket, a compelling price will often result in multiple bids.  This often confuses buyers, who have been led to believe that they are in a buyer's market, and can offer well below the asking price.  They are happy to believe this, even though it is clear that most of the country is in a seller's market, due primarily to a lack of inventory. 


Here, in many places, we have lots of inventory.  However, it's not always in the same price categories or locations that buyers want first.  And, sorry to say, much of what's been around a long time is overpriced.  Sellers don't accept that in many cases, though, because they often paid more for the home that it is currently worth, and sometimes have also done work.  They can also point to homes that sold for more, even if those properties may not be in the same condition as their own home.  (A note here:  Buyers today want perfection.  They do not want to do any work to a home.  What you may overlook as the current occupants, they will deduct from the value.) 


What should sellers do?  Listen carefully to what you are being told about value.  Write it down, so you don't forget it.  Don't ask "What shall I put my house on the market for?", but rather "At what price will my home sell within thirty days?".  Don't assume that you need to leave room for negotiation.  That's one tactic, but, in my opinion, a compelling price (at or slightly below the expected sales price within 30 days) will have the greatest likelihood of drawing multiple offers, which is your best chance of getting a higher price.  Bidding wars work.  They excite people, and increase a buyer's estimation of a home's value.  Pay attention to early signs.  If your home has been shown ten times, and you don't have an offer, it's the price.  Period.  If you don't sell your home in the first month (or even in the first two weeks), your chances of selling relatively quickly go way down. Period.  This isn't rocket science.  So why is it so hard for people to follow these rules? 


One clear example, as we know from Freakonomics, is to look at what real estate agents do with their own properties.  I heard yesterday that one shoreline agent just sold her own home for $200,000 less than she paid for it.  That should ring a big bell for sellers there. 


And for buyers?  The market now is hyperlocal.  You may find much more competition in some places than in others.  If you love the home, bid what you would regret to hear that someone else paid for it.  If it goes for more than you could afford, or if you didn't like it that much, you won't have regrets.  Otherwise, don't play games.  Understand that there are often back-up offers, and don't go crazy with the inspection requests, or consider them a second round of price negotiations on the property.  Behave fairly.  Tell the truth.  Again, these rules are simple.  And they yield big dividends.


Are we ever wrong?  Of course we are.  But not as often as you would think, since we see so much inventory, and have such a good pulse on market conditions.  Please listen to us.  It will be worth your while.

Connecticut vs.the Country

Reading the national news, we get a lot of news about real estate in other places, where the biggest obstacle is lack of inventory.  That, obviously, pushes prices up, since demand then exceeds supply. This has now been going on for so long that the market has begun to cool off in some of the places that were strongest, including metro NYC.

Despite our proximity to New York, we in Connecticut have fallen way behind the curve. We're not growing, in jobs, in income, in housing, or in really anything much these days.  Therefore, our demand is lower, so our supply is higher, and prices have been going down for the past year; there's almost nowhere else in the country where this is true.

Good news, however, came yesterday!  Our prices for housing went up last month, after twelve straight months of decline.  Sometimes it's good to be behind the curve, because the curve can bend, and we are still catching up. Some of this is household formation, which is bound to occur as the millennials settle down.  Some of it is pent-up demand, from renters who are seeing their rental costs rising quickly (and more quickly than in most states, since our supply has been very low, and we have lots of students to use it up), and from investors, who see this region as affordable, compared particularly to New York and Boston.

Let's expect that our growth will continue for some time to come, since rates are still low, and prices have a long way to rise.  Our building permits are down, so the supply of housing (except on the rental side), shouldn't be increasing much in the near future.  It's time for us to join the party!

Report from Nashville

It was almost surreal to be in Nashville this week.  After not having been there for the past nine years, it was hard to believe the growth and change.  82 people a day are moving to Nashville, and it seems as though everyone else in the country is visiting the Country Music Hall of Fame.  The streets downtown are as crowded at night as Times Square, and it's the country's #1 destination for bachelorette parties--who knew?

Corporations are moving to Nashville, and bringing plenty of employees with them.  Cranes and other signs of growth abound.  Prices for homes in the tonier neighborhoods are very high, and new hot spots are appearing.  Although they saw the same Great Recession as everywhere else, it certainly seems to be over!  Our friends at Zeitlin Realtors are looking to have a booming year, and were busy right through their traditionally slow season.  It wasn't springlike weather over the weekend, but the real estate market was.

Other companies also attending reported mixed growth in the first two months, but all are expecting a good year this year.  Rates are still low (but on the bubble of going up), and the main problem is a lack of inventory in many price ranges.  Fingers crossed!

Connecticut is Out of Sync with the US as a Whole

We have posted charts this week, showing the increase or decrease in sales from 2014 to 2015 at different price points, both in CT and across the country.  You can see that sales here are higher on the lower end of the price spectrum, while higher-priced homes have increased more in other parts of the country.  This means that we are still, relatively, a buyers' market, whereas lack of inventory, combined with greater price increases, have combined to give sellers the edge in many other places. 

What does this mean for buyers and sellers?  If you are a first-time homebuyer, or a buyer moving into our region, you can buy more for your money than you could before, and more than in places that used to be equivalent in price to Connecticut.  If you are trading up or down, it shouldn't matter; you will sell for less than you hoped, but will buy again at the same lower prices.  If you are selling only, you may find that you cannot achieve the net price you wished, and that your asking price may have to be lower, or that you need to lower it now, if it has been on the market for some time. 



Happy New Year!

We in real estate are looking forward to a very happy 2016, for several reasons. First of all, it may sound counterintuitive, but having the Fed raise rates slightly is almost always good for business. People just don't seem to take the threat of higher mortgage rates seriously, until they actually begin to go up. That tends to make buyers much more motivated to buy in the short run, as opposed to what they have been doing, which is a lot of looking, waiting, and looking some more.

Another sign of hope is the lack of inventory in some price ranges, and the number of first-time homebuyers out there. As millennials marry and have children, they (often with the help of their parents) will buy homes. Up until now, they've been happy renters. In our area, the math clearly suggests that buying is better. Soon, a new generation will agree.

Locally, we can probably thank GE, but the Governor has definitely gotten the message that residents have choices about where to live, and they have been voting with their feet. The attention on our loss of population, jobs, and allure is getting our state to the point where it feels it needs to respond. And, if it does, more renters who own property elsewhere may buy here, also or instead.

All of these factors make me optimistic for 2016, but, in order for me to be correct, many of you have to agree. Here's hoping that you do!

Report from Madison, Wisconsin

Every spring and fall, I meet in some city around the country with broker/owners of large, independent real estate companies.  I always come back with a balanced perspective on what's happening in real estate nationally.  These past couple of years, there are areas where Connecticut is part of the pack, and areas where we have fallen off the pace.


In almost every market, the year is shaping up to be a booming one for real estate.  Only in our state are prices still falling.  However, that still puts our average price right in line with many other places.  Inventory, which was a huge problem in the spring, seems a little looser in most states.  Here, it's a little tighter, but there is still more inventory than there would be in a seller's ideal market.  Many regions had big supplies of homes on the very high end, though, whatever that was for their area.  It was common for brokers to mention more than a year's supply on the upper sales.


Everyone was worried about what would happen with the new mortgage regulations, which went into effect this past weekend.  No one doubted that there would be hiccups along the way, even with buyers already in the pipeline.  Although the rules technically impact only new applications, there seemed to be evidence that at least some lenders were going back and amending applications already in progress. Mortgage issues may change from year to year, but there always seems to be some new issue that plagues us.


Madison is a market that has traditionally looked, at least in statistics, a lot like greater New Haven.  We are both dominated by big universities, along with smaller ones, and have a lot of public sector employees.  Madison, as the State Capitol, has a greater number of those, and, partially as a result, has a large middle sector of the market, with very little on the upper and lower ends.  New Haven and its suburbs, as we all know by now, are distinguished nationally by the spread between haves and have nots, and we do skew both high and low.  So our numbers may look the same in the end, but they are made up very differently, and, right now, that's causing Madison to outperform us substantially.  Their prices and sales are up, and the market is booming.  Here, as you know, it's still well below 2007 levels.  Let's hope that the outcry from business in the current legislative environment, plus the departures, will serve as a wake-up call to the State.  Let's catch up to Madison!

Current Absorption Rates

Explanation of absorption rate: The rate at which available homes are sold in a specific real estate market during a given time period.  If you look at the number for Wallingford you can say “If market conditions do not change and if no new listings come on the market it will take 4.7 months for the current inventory to sell at the current pace of the market.  A balanced market’s absorption rate is typically between 5 – 7 months.”

What the Data Tells Us about Real Estate Sales

We've been experiencing higher than normal volume on our website lately.  I know that's a message that you are used to hearing when you call in for customer service almost anywhere, but here it means something different.  It means that we can tell, from the analytics provided to us by our web provider and our Search Engine Management provider, that the usual uptick in site visits and searches began right after the holidays this year.  Usually we would see that rise begin in February or so, and that would translate into more traffic at open houses and more showings by the end of March. 


This year, all indications are that the spring market has already started.  And this despite all the snow!  While you might think (as I did) that bad weather and dark, cold nights would have people rushing to their computers to search for property, we can tell that the visits are coming during the day, and during the week, more than on the bitterly cold and messy weekends we've been having.  That would suggest that the traffic is normal, but early, as opposed to caused by boredom.


Our agents are reporting that showings are surprisingly robust for this time of year, and that open houses were strong, even on the traditionally slow Super Bowl Sunday (I've never understood why it takes all day, if you're not hosting a party, to get ready to watch a football game, but that's another blog topic...).  Inventory is down, and buyers are clearly eager to see new listings.  Many of the listings that have been on the market for a long time have been judged by buyers to be overpriced, or compromised in some way, so new offerings are highly prized.  Sellers take note!