Are Prices Starting to Rise?

As with many things, prices are local--very local. In addition, price indices are rarely apples-to-apples comparisons.  They usually take prices on one date and compare them to prices as a whole on another date.  For example, the Case-Shiller Index actually takes the total sales of all the property in a city and compares it to the total value of the property sold in that city in an earlier period, to calculate the rise or fall of real estate values over a period of time.  That means that it's hard to know what would happen to one specific property when it got sold or resold.

In the current market, sales are being driven by first-time homebuyers and are strongest at the low end of the price spectrum.  Overall, prices are flat or still falling slightly, although this does lag in time, due to reporting delays.  However, we are beginning to see appraisal problems again, which had not been occurring in recent months.  That indicates that prices are rising, thereby pushing up sales prices above levels of past reported sales, which are used by appraisers to calculate value.

What's the bottom line?  Prices at the lower end are being squeezed by supply and demand factors, and are probably heading up.  Higher-end sales are still waiting for that phenomenon to take place.

Assessment Woes

The City of New Haven has just released its new assessment figures, and there is a lot of talk in the media (see particularly the last couple of articles in the New Haven Independent) about tax increases by neighborhood.  As I've blogged about before, East Rock is the neighborhood in New Haven that stands out as having held its value over the past years of decline (Spring Glen in Hamden is the other one that really distinguishes itself).  Because so many areas in our region, let alone the core city, have gone down in value since the peak of the market, East Rock stands to have higher tax increases in the upcoming revaluation.

While one could look at that from a negative point of view, the real key here is that values have held up in that neighborhood, despite plenty of bad economic news and job loss around the region and the country.  Although that may cause taxes for people there to rise, they are not going to be underwater in value, as so many others are.  And that's certainly good news.