State grades every school district and three-quarters see a drop

By: JACQUELINE RABE THOMAS AND JAKE KARA | The CT Mirror | February 9, 2018

The large majority of public schools and school districts in the state earned worse grades this year than last on the state’s annual assessment of school performance, according to data released Friday by the State Department of Education.

The state’s zero-to-100 grading system takes into account more than a dozen measures, including standardized test scores and how many students are chronically absent, enroll in arts and Advanced Placement courses, graduate from high school and enroll in college within a year of graduation.

Test scores, once the lone measure for grading schools and districts, still account for about 80 percent of the ratings for elementary and middle schools. About half of that measure is based on whether individual student test scores show enough improvement to indicate they will reach grade level within five years. That is designed to help the parents and educators judge whether a school is headed in the right direction.

Far fewer students this year saw their scores improve enough in math and English to put them on track to reach grade level. That decline was the driving force behind the huge increase in schools and districts that saw their grades drop.

“We have a long way to go there,” Ajit Gopalakrishnan, the leader of the State Department of Education’s performance office, told reporters when releasing the results.

He said he hopes the results are a wake-up call that prompts educators to question why so many schools and districts are seeing declines. In English, 8.5 percent fewer students are on-track to reach grade level, and in math, 3.3 percent fewer were on track. Just over half of students are on track to reach grade level.

“Growth is where [the department] is putting a lot of its emphasis… It is about saying, ‘Why are some students growing and others are not?” Gopalakrishnan said.

Looking at the overall zero-to-100 score, 146 school districts of the 201 receiving a grade for both the 2015-16 and 2016-17 school years saw declines. That’s 73 percent.

Fifty districts – one out of every four – saw their scores drop by more than four points. Fifteen districts saw their scores increase by more than four points.

In the 10 districts that have been among the lowest performing in the state for years – known as Opportunity or Reform districts where the state has increased involvement – seven saw their grades drop. These districts enroll one-quarter of the state’s public school students but 45 percent of students from low-income families and 54 percent of students who understand limited English.

Individual schools didn’t fare any better.

Of the 1,045 schools, 647 saw their overall scores drop. That’s 62 percent with declines, 3 percent with no change and 35 percent with an increase.

Scores dropped by more than four points at 351 schools, or one in three schools. A total of 131 schools saw their scores increase by more than four points.

The state has not done an analysis of how individual schools in which they intervened in through the so-called Commissioners’ Network program fared.

Other indicators that contribute to a school’s grade – but play a much smaller role – did see some increases. For example, students participating in and passing the exams in high-level courses such as Advanced Placement or International Baccalaureate increased by about 4 percent. It’s unclear where the increases took place and whether white, black, Hispanic and students from low-income families all saw increases. In its release, the department did not break out high-need groups that have historically struggled in school, as it did the previous two years.

Also seeing improvement were the rate of students with access to arts courses and those on-track to graduate high school.

Gopalakrishnan said the department hopes the results will help schools and districts better understand where to focus their energy and that next year’s results will improve.

“It’s not a gotcha for a gotcha sake,” he said. “It’s about improving… We’ve really move from sanctions to support."

Grading Connecticut schools

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What Makes a Neighborhood?

We recently talked at a meeting about trends in neighborhood preferences among buyers.  The average first-time homebuyer is a millennial, and the average buyer is a Gen Xer.  For a long time, people thought that those groups would only live in cities, and only commute on foot, by bike, or by public transportation.  It seems now that that's not entirely true, but there are some real differences that our agents are seeing in Greater New Haven.

Once younger buyers have children, they care a great deal, as did their parents and grandparents, about school quality.  They also tend to prefer more space, both inside and out.  Unlike their parents, however, they want to spend less time commuting, maintain less in the way of house and grounds, and live in a setting with shops, restaurants, and parks.  That's what is meant by the new "walkability" scores that show up on real estate websites.  People want to be able to get milk, see a neighbor, or arrange a play date without getting into a car. 

We are seeing this show up in New Haven, for instance, where East Rock now seems almost suburban to buyers, but has sidewalks and foot traffic everywhere, with coffee shops and other neighborhood attractions and institutions.  Most people drive many places, but want the freedom to walk children to school, or sit on a front porch and converse with passersby.  It's a feeling of safety in numbers, but also of community.  Bigger homes on bigger lots that are farther apart appeal to a different group, smaller in number, that want to entertain, love the spacious feeling of older homes built in a bygone era of grandeur, and want backyards and big gardens.  They also like walking places, but crave more privacy. 

In the suburbs, we see the same trends playing out. Spring Glen, with its high walkability score, is selling quickly.  On the Shoreline, houses and condos near the Guilford Green are at an all-time premium.  There is a second reason for this, which is that older buyers also care about walkability and convenience, and they also want less space and smaller lots to maintain.  The two groups compete for the closer-in properties along the Shoreline, although the smaller homes in East Rock are still large, and attract mostly growing families. 

This means that there is a large supply, almost everywhere, of the biggest homes in a town.  Some of that relates to taxes, but just as much to lifestyle.  Whether busy with young children, or free to travel more, buyers are choosing smaller, sometimes cheaper, and always as walkable as possible.  So, if that's the type of home you own, think about now as a good time to sell!

Do the Math

There is a famous aphorism that says that there is no certainty in life, except for death and taxes.  Taxes turn  out to be a big factor in the purchase of property, although we don't really see the certainty involved.  Yes, taxes go up over time, but do they go up at the same rate in every city and town?  Are they phased in the same way everywhere?  Are the same services included?  Are the school systems comparable?

People buying property care a lot about what the taxes are, since what they are really basing affordability on is the amount of the monthly payment of mortgage, interest, insurance, and taxes.  While they may know the first two calculations, if they get a fixed-rate mortgage, they tend to overvalue the current information available, and overrate the problem of uncertainty going forward, about all kinds of things.  For instance, if you take money out of your savings to purchase a home, and those savings were in the stock market, what are you giving up as an alternative return?  You don't know what the stock market will do over the long haul, although you do know that, like real estate, it's generally cyclical.  If you buy rather than rent, will the price of your home increase over the period that you own it? Again, you don't know, although that is usually true, especially if you hold it for a long enough time, and if you buy when prices are not at a peak.  Will your housing needs remain stable for the foreseeable future?  "Foreseeable" would seem to imply that you know what they will be, but life has a way of throwing curve balls, be it a new job, an illness or injury, another child or children, an aging relative, or any number of other variables.  You can't know up front what the market will be like when you sell.  If you wait to buy, will prices and mortgage rates hold steady?  Although we can't know, it's not likely, especially if you wait for a long time. How quickly will rents rise, especially in New Haven, the country's tightest rental market?

I could go on and on, but I've made my point.  So, what's a person to do?  One of the best things I learned in business school was how to make a decision tree.  Since this column does not include a tutorial in econometrics, I'll simplify.  Make a list of the uncertainties, then put them each in either the "Buy Now" column, or the "Buy Later" column, depending upon which way they are each likely to lead you.  Try to quantify the general risk of each one in monetary terms (e.g., interest rates go up 1% vs. taxes go up 8%), and you will get an idea of what the math tells you.  You should, of course, factor in your own particular risk aversion factor (that is, how much uncertainty will bother you), but the numbers will tell you something.  If you find yourself arguing with the numbers, you will be telling yourself something that way, because you will be revealing your gut instinct.  Whatever you decide, it's time to go with that, and act.

Open Houses Rule

This weekend, despite being at one end or the other of just about every school system's vacation week, was a big one for open houses.  Some had as many as 25 people at them.  The market seems driven by first-time home buyers (proving that they are the one group that probably doesn't need an incentive to want to buy), who want to take advantage of low rates and low prices.  Of course, it is usually their parents who have to let them know how low rates are, since anyone under 35 wouldn't remember high ones.  (Conversely, my husband and I bought our first home in 1982 with an 18.75 % special low rate, that seemed OK to us, given that other mortgages were at 21%---it's all relative!).

Houses are starting to come onto the market at springtime pace, and buyers are out there to take advantage of the rates, the choices, and the weather.  Let's hope it keeps up at this rate!