February is the New May

Agents have known for many years now that, at least in Greater New Haven, May is not the best time to list.  That comes much earlier-- probably in February--because of the number of colleges and hospitals in the area.  Most job offers in those institutions are for years beginning on July 1st, and the offers come very early in the calendar year.  Once people decide to move, they begin looking at real estate.

Every year, no matter what we do, there is a shortage of listings to show to transferees during the winter months.  We try to get listings on the market sooner, but the "old" pattern of thinking that buyers want to buy in May and move before the start of school for their children in the fall is still stuck in the minds of sellers.  First of all, many buyers don't have children in school.  Even when they do, it is not uncommon for one parent to stay behind until the end of the school year, meaning that the purchase can come anytime in the moving process.  Now, with many school systems teaching remotely, some families can move whenever they find the right house.

Sometimes buyers find their dream home more quickly than they expect.  Our prices are still low enough that they may buy with a bridge loan, and sell in their previous location later.  Tax considerations also play into the timing of moves, and early in the year may seem safer to some.

Many buyers are local.  They don't have to move during a school vacation, and they have been looking all along, if we look at statistics on internet browsing.  Our hits go up in December, so it's clear that prospective buyers aren't waiting until spring to check out the market.  Now, in particular, with supply in general so limited, buyers will move more quickly to secure a home if it seems as though it works for them.  They have a better chance of doing so spring fever hasn't hit.

Sellers should also consider how their houses will stack up in the market.  Listing early, when choices are fewer, will give them a much greater advantage, especially if there is something about the house that might not move it to the top of a bigger choice list.  With more of the looking done remotely, even the argument that it's harder to show a home in bad weather becomes less compelling.

Once again, we are sounding the alarm early.  If you want to sell, list now!  If you want to buy, don't let those early listings pass you by!  If you want to both sell and buy, give yourself the longest possible season in which to do so, by starting early!  You won't be sorry.  

The Real Estate Market is Hotter than the Weather

Most people think that this time of year is slow for real estate, and that bad weather slows down the market even more.  While that used to be somewhat true, we now can tell-in real time, using Google analytics-that buyers are out in force during the winter months.  In addition, despite the cold, they want to get a jump on the spring market, so they are turning out in force for open houses and appointments to see new listings.

Just as in every other year, in our academic area, we don't  have enough inventory to show the number of buyers coming through.  Also, we are catching the end of the wave that has swept the country from west to east in the past few years, and inventory shortages are driving sales. While other regions have seen a slowdown, we seem to be experiencing a boom, or at least a boomlet.  Sometimes it's good to lag the market!

If you are a seller, this is your moment, and you should seize it.  If you are a buyer, don't be shy about bidding, and bidding on what you may feel is the high end of value.  While the spring market may bring more choices, it will also bring more buyers, so your chances of landing a bargain will not go up.  And think of this--if you are successful in your offer, you can be enjoying your new home by spring, instead of spending your weekends at open houses!

Expecting an Early Start to the Year

The traditional wisdom in real estate has people talking about the "spring market".  Prices are higher, attendance at open houses goes up, and contracts proliferate.  Sometimes the spring market even becomes the summer market, especially when the winter is lengthy and snowy, as happened last year.

There is another pattern in south central Connecticut, however, that happens for a couple of reasons. One is that we have an unusually high number of colleges and universities, which operate on a July to June calendar (as do most nonprofits, which also exist in large quantities in our region).  That means that offers of employment go out early in the calendar year, with July 1st starting dates. 

Also influencing our timing are the demographics we see.  Our average age in the State tilts high, and our birth rate tilts low (obviously, those two things are related).  That means that relatively fewer households have school-age children, causing their moves to take place according to other factors.  Although we do see many sales occurring in the spring, with closings taking place in the summer, we see lots of people buying at other times of the year.  People buying toward the close of the year are often investors, who are looking at tax considerations.  People buying early are coming into academic jobs or hospital positions.  This is especially true in the city of New Haven.

What that translates to is a paucity of listings in the winter, when the job offers starting coming in.  We are scrounging for homes to show in January and February, especially when we don't have snow on the ground.  We are expecting that to be true this year in spades, since we had activity straight through the holiday season, as well as increased hits to our website. 

We hope that sellers and potential sellers take this information and rush to get their homes ready to show as soon as possible.  While there may be more buyers in the spring, there are very motivated ones now, and the competition is less.  Try it and see for yourself!

Snow and Real Estate Sales

Snow is not good for real estate sales.  I taught my children at a young age to moderate their excitement on school snow days, telling them that snow causes people to cancel their showing appointments.  Buyers don't want to go out and drive around in bad weather, and sellers don't want to worry about shoveling and dirty boots tracking through their clean houses. 

But real estate isn't an impulse purchase, right?  It's hardly in the category of the candy by the checkout counter, or even the perfect dress in a shop window. Therefore, people who don't look and buy one day should do so the next, or the next week or month. 

Well, they probably do.  Unfortunately for us, we track sales  year to year by the week and the month.  When we look back, we don't always remember the weather at the same moment the year before.  Perhaps, however, this year will be different.  This weekend marks the first anniversary of the Blizzard of '13. That storm impacted sales for weeks, so much so that the whole month of February 2013 was horrendous for us.  That loss followed us for the whole year, for good and for ill.  We popped later in the spring, the spring market lasted well into the summer, and the summer lag started in late August. 

So what will 2014 bring?  So far, a lot of ice and snow!