School is Back in Session, and So is the Real Estate Market

 It may still be close to 100 degrees outside, but fall is on the way.  Kids are headed back to school, vacations are mostly over, and many people still think of Labor Day as the true start of a new year.  

If you are interested in selling your property, now just may be the season.  There are plenty of buyers out there, and many of them were shut out of the spring market with too much competition. Also, we've been reading about the "wedding boom" that is following the COVID pause, so more households are forming all the time.  People who have been living in pods are headed back to work, sometimes in remote locations, and change is in the air.  Listing your home now will attract all of those groups.

But don't get greedy!  The fall buying window is shorter than the one in the spring, and it isn't a good idea to try to test a high price, with the thought that you can drop it later.  Figure out your bottom line, and price to sell where you can make that number, but where it will appraise out.

Buyers should be thinking that they can take another bite at the apple, now that the rush is over.  Fall in New England is glorious, and many homes look at their best.  You just may fall in love with your forever home.  Winter is coming, and it will be so nice to be settling into a new place, just in time for the holidays.  The pandemic months gave everyone a chance to see what isolated living is like, and to get a better sense of their priorities in a home.  Now that you know, it's time to act.

We've all spent the last year and a half in a state of suspended animation, while we wait to see what the new normal will end up looking like.  While there are still no firm answers, there are clear trends, and clear preferences among buyers.  We have become more adaptable, because we've had to, and we can apply that trait to fitting ourselves into new living situations.  Learning to embrace the possible has been a key success factor lately, and it applies well to real estate.  

Labor Day is Around the Corner

Even though the weekend traffic indicated that many people are headed home after the summer, and that most schools are starting this week, we've always considered Labor Day to be the kickoff for the fall real estate season.  And, even though most people think of spring as the primary buying and selling season, that is less true than it used to be, particularly in Connecticut.  We have an older population and a lower birth rate than other states, so we are less driven by the school year, and maybe more by taxes.  Many people want to buy or sell before the end of a calendar year, to deduct expenses sooner.  If that applies to you, it's time to get moving.

Fall is an excellent time for buyers in particular, since the expenses of heating and plowing start when the temperature drops.  And, given the aforementioned interest in the tax consequences of real estate, autumn is when sellers strongly consider offers that they might not accept earlier in the year.  I say every year, so I'm saying it again now:  The best time to buy real estate is between Halloween and Thanksgiving.  Prices are low, and motivation is high.

Sellers also should pay attention to the fall boomlet, since it's often a new pool of buyers that are beginning to look now.  Properties, especially those new to the market, have fresh eyes to consider them, especially since people spend more time on the internet and with newspapers when they have less daylight to use for other pursuits.  Homes also show well in crisp, clean air and changing leaves.  New England is at its best! 

So during the last picnics of summer, think about your own real estate goals for 2016.  Have you achieved them yet?  If not, the big push toward the close of the year starts now.

Are you ready for 2015?

I know it sounds ridiculous, in the waning days of summer (hot and humid, to boot!), to be talking about the beginning of a new year.  But we in the real estate industry know the time cycles of our profession, and we know that someone who wants to be in a new home by the end of the year needs to get on the stick right now. 

Labor Day is the traditional start of the fall market--that brief two months when people rush to do what they didn't do in the spring--and we're ready for it.  Buyers suddenly wake up from the dog days of summer to rush into action, and sellers get serious about getting to closing on properties that they want to sell, especially if there are tax reasons for finishing the transaction this year.

Although these two groups can be a very motivated lot, there still needs to be some urgency in the process, since financing issues seem to take an ever-increasing amount of time, and the very end of the year can be tricky for inspections, closings, and other things.  While the first snow may seem very far away, it's just around the corner, and will throw a wrench into dates seemingly fixed in stone. 

So don't be left out in the cold--act now to achieve your 2014 goals!

July is Sizzling!

There aren't many holiday times for real estate agents.  People tend to buy real estate when they have time, and that is often when the rest of their lives are slow.  For us, that can mean writing a contract on the hood of a car on Mother's Day, or in a kitchen on Christmas Eve.

Usually, though, we can count on the fact that, once the rush to buy and close in the spring and early summer is over, mostly by June 30th, there will be a break that can last until Labor Day.  Except for vacation-area properties, most homes are not as likely to be sold, or even shown, in the dog days of summer.  Few people choose to list their homes then, either, maybe because they'd rather be at the beach than getting property ready to show.

But not this year!  We're well into the dog days of summer, and we're cranking along at full speed still.  In my opinion, we are still catching up from the time we lost to storms, particularly the Blizzard of 2013 in February.  Closings were slow in March and April, and we're still scrambling to finish what would ordinarily have been the spring market.  And, as anyone who has been outside in the past month knows, it's not spring anymore!

What does this mean for buyers and sellers?  Sellers should reconsider holding off until Labor Day to list, and many people are doing just that.  New listings are surprisingly robust for summer. Buyers should not give in to the impulse to procrastinate.  Mortgage rates have already gone up 15%.  Prices are up in almost every part of the country, and are starting to climb on the lower end of the market here.  Don't make the mistake that so many people do, and spend your summer next year wishing that you'd bought now!

When the Heat Goes On, the Price Comes Down

As I put on my first long-sleeve shirt of the season to go running this morning, I reflected on what the changing weather means for real estate.  Although spring is the traditional listing and buying season, based on the school year schedule, Labor Day brings a bump that lasts until about Thanksgiving.  For sellers, the first time that they think about heating a home that's empty, or one that's too big, they also begin to worry about freezing pipes, snowplowing, and all the downsides of winter.  We are not unaccustomed to getting calls from sellers, who previously had been saying that they were not in a hurry and didn't have to sell, asking why there have been no offers.  At that point, they are often willing to get serious about pricing their property to move quickly.  Of course, we remind them that they have a window before winter, which is quickly disappearing.

If you are a buyer, this is when you should be serious also.  It can take longer to close during holiday season, so don't take too long to make your offers and sign your contracts.  The end of the year is rapidly approaching.  Take advantage of this time to buy a great home at a good price with a low mortgage rate!

Back Down Again?

It's quiet in our offices this month--really, really quiet. Now we're reading that the national trends say that the uptick ended in about July, which, coincidentally, is what we saw. It was far busier through July than it typically is in the summer. It was slower in August, but that is almost always true. After Labor Day, we usually see a marked increase in activity. That lasts until about Halloween, or maybe Thanksgiving, and then the buyers hibernate like bears until the spring.

We're not quite sure what to make of this latest turn of events. The stimulus program and the $8000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers were supposed to be making the phones ring. Indeed, it did, but the phones have slowed down. I can only speculate, and my guess would be that the market will not stay up until unemployment comes down. I also think that the hoopla over national health insurance has people worried about costs. Whatever the reason, it's not good.

One of the earliest CEOs of General Motors famously said that "what's good for General Motors is good for America". I would argue that the same is true of real estate. The government needs to do what it has to do in order to stimulate the real estate market at all levels, not just at the lowest end. The recovery depends upon it.

New Haven's Labor Day Road Race

I just had to do a blog entry about one of my favorite New Haven events--the annual Labor Day 20K road race. As many of you know, I'm a dedicated runner. I run lots of races all year long, but the 20K is a polestar in my running year.

First of all, my running buddy Ray Fair has a model (available on his website, http://www.aginginsports.com/), that computes an equivalent time at every age to your absolute fastest time. That gives those of us older runners a chance to improve; not in actual time, which is very difficult after a certain age and a number of running years, but in relative time. It calculates a regression line for each runner, and allows you to have a goal that incorporates aging, by giving you a factor by which you "should" slow down. Then you try to beat that time.

Yesterday was a near perfect day. It was cool at the start, breezy on Long Wharf, and sunny, but never too hot or humid. Real runners would prefer cooler weather, but, for early September, it doesn't get much better than yesterday. In addition, great weather brings out more spectators, and they always help a lot.

Therefore, many of us had good races. I didn't feel great for the first 3 or 4 miles, but, once I got into a groove, I calmed down and even picked up the pace. Although my time was not my fastest, it was my fastest in age-adjusted terms. That's always something to celebrate! I'm below my regression line for the first time ever, I think. Ray says it's because I train well, but I think it's because I had a lot of improvement and slow times in the earlier years, which brings my average time up. Whatever the reason, I'm happy.

Everyone else who came out to run or to cheer seemed happy as well. That's why it's such a great day for runners, and a great day for New Haven. And the best part? We don't need to do it again for 364 days!