Summing up 2008

As the new year begins, we're taking stock of how we ended last year. The news is not quite as bleak at H. Pearce as one might have thought. We're down a little over 15% in commissions earned from the year before. Since that takes into account that prices fell, reducing commissions due, plus that numbers of sales fell, we did very well compared to the market as a whole. One of the agents brought in a check on December 31st and told me that 2008 was her best year ever. More agents than I would have thought could say the same thing. In fact, a couple of months ago I checked an earnings report, and noted that 52% of our agents were ahead at that point of their earnings from 2007. That may have changed somewhat by the end of the year, but probably not by that much. It shows that, in this difficult market, whom you choose to sell your property matters. Good agents are more valuable than ever.

We're still waiting to see whether we made a profit as a company in 2008. It's close enough that we can't tell yet. That's good news in this economy! We look forward to making money in 2009, in part by concentrating on the things that will increase: relocation; rentals; appraisals; refinancings; and short sales, in addition to our regular business.

On another note, the running season began with a very cold and snowy Frostbite 5K in Guilford on Thursday morning. The sun was bright, but the snow wasn't all melted and the winds were whipping across the Guilford fairgrounds and the town dock, so all the times were slow. Well over 300 people braved the elements, though. Joel Galvin represented H. Pearce with his wife, Nan, as they helped to man the Guilford Rotary benefit race.

I agree with Nelly

Nelly's comment about the weather and 2009 rings true here in Guilford, where the wind is whipping around the house at gusts, they say on the news, up to 60 mph! It's been so windy this winter so far that I'm beginning to think it has something to do with the economy, like the dust storms in the 30s. It feels like winter everywhere. I'm raising my glass tonight to a better '09, a healthier real estate market, and good health and prosperity for all our associates, employees, clients, and friends.

2009 Can't Come Too Soon

We real estaters are eagerly awaiting the drop of the ball in Times Square, so that the page can turn from 2008 to 2009, when we fervently hope that consumers will start buying real estate again. On my run this morning, I was explaining to one of my friends that it DOES make sense to trade up, since he will save more on the new house than he will "lose" selling the old one in this market. When will people stop putting their lives on hold? Of course, I'm biased.

I've been thinking a lot about consumer behavior over the past few days. We went to see Frost/Nixon in the Connecticut Post Mall, and discovered that the world is indeed still flocking to malls, or at least they were there, searching for bargains, on the day after Christmas. Movies seem to be attracting crowds, as we've seen on our movie binge after Christmas. In addition to Frost/Nixon, we saw Milk and Doubt. Of the three, Milk stands out as an amazing film; of course, I did see the play versions of the other two, so the suspense wasn't there. We saw all those movies after seeing several plays in a row at the start of the month. We loved A Civil War Christmas at Long Wharf Theatre, Rough Crossing at Yale Rep, and Mamma Mia at the Shubert, plus I also enjoyed Sister's Christmas Catechism at Long Wharf. It's amazing to be able to live in a small city like New Haven and see such a broad diversity of great theater. A Civil War Christmas, in particular, I expect to see popping up all over the country in the next few years--but we saw it here first!

According to other friends, liquor is selling, beauty salons are doing well, and restaurants seem to be holding their own. The last fact really puzzles me, and maybe it's not true. It seems as though eating out would be the first luxury to go, before you stop buying cars and clothes. I went into a clothing chain store yesterday, and the clothes seem to be selling for less than the cloth alone would cost. I'm glad that all you need to run is a pair of sneakers!

A snowy weekend

I'm sitting in my office waiting for the snow to begin. The first big snow of the season always leads to cancellations and traffic, but little real estate activity. Most of our activity this week has been in the form of office parties. Spirits have been surprisingly good, although maybe it's due to the spirits consumed! We've had many toasts to a better 2009.

What I am seeing, however, is that those listings that our offices collectively think are "well priced" have been selling. From one meeting to the next, more than half of those will have gone under contract. That's very surprising, considering that it seems as though nothing is selling. I guess that's because we're only talking about 5 percent or so of all the properties we have listed. I put quotation marks around well priced because it's so hard to know what that means now. Even if a seller took our advice when he or she listed it, it's probably lower now. Past sales are very little indication of what will happen today, and buyers are only signing if they perceive that they're getting a bargain. Believe it or not, there are still some multiple bid situations when that is the case. The internet provides so much information, and most buyers look at so many properties, that they know right away if they need to move quickly to lock something in before it sells to someone else. What does this mean for sellers? Your property must stand out in a sea of listings, and price is the most important factor for all but a very few.