We all have to be careful not to take statistics too
seriously, because we can find ones that support more than one point of view
about the market. In fact, we can support opposing points of view with
available data. One side argues that the residential market is pretty
good—low supply, low mortgage rates, eager millennials, influx from NY, and
improving job reports. The other shows a bleaker picture—prices still 10%
below 2006, job growth in lower level jobs, outmigration to other states among
the wealthier boomers, a lagging economy over 20 years, and high State
debt. What’s a person to think?
The answer is, as it always seems to be, it depends.
If you are a seller, this is a good time to sell, given low supply, new
household formation, low interest rates, and a mild winter. If you are a
buyer, this is a good time to buy, because of those same low interest rates,
the improving position of the State, high quality of life, and room for
appreciation, with good prices to be had. When you take those two things
together, you see a fairly balanced market, with both buyers and sellers
finding points in their favor, and points against. At the end of the day,
the purchase of a home is about your life, and not just your money. Lower
interest rates, over time, make much more difference than the price, within
some range. The sale of a home involves being ready for next steps, and wanting
to reinvest in smaller houses, perhaps in different places. Those factors
very often outweigh strictly economic concerns. Like any lawyer, I could
make an argument for either side. Instead, I’ll content myself with
saying that cognitive dissonance means that, whatever you do, you can convince
yourself that you did the right thing. And there’s evidence to support
that idea, no matter what you do this year. So follow your instincts, and
do what’s best for you and your family.
