Often it's hard to be one of the only places in the country where appreciation is lagging, and more people move out of, rather than into, our state. However, there is one big advantage to having the rest of the country on a different time schedule for the real estate cycle: A rising tide lifts all boats.
For several years following the downturn ten years ago, people moving for jobs had trouble buying in the new locations, because they couldn't sell their homes in the places they were leaving. Often they ended up renting when they moved here, in part for that reason, and in part to make sure that their jobs here worked out. In a way, the whole national market got stuck, since people were renting out their old homes, and therefore renting their new ones by necessity. In fact, our relocation department found that the old numbers just switched; instead of 80% of transferees buying, and 20% renting, we went to 80% renting and 20% buying. That was obviously not good for absorption in our market area of Greater New Haven.
Now, however, transferees coming in are mostly coming from places with markets that are fully recovered--in some cases, declines from the post-recession peak have already occurred. Those people are coming with equity to put into homes here, and a positive attitude acquired from their latest real estate transaction. While it doesn't mean that they will overpay here, and that values are still well below their peaks in many towns and neighborhoods, it does mean that there are new buyers out there. And that's good news for all of us!
