Core Logic: Home Price Index Report

Home prices enjoyed a 27^th straight month of year-over-year growth in May CoreLogic said today, but noted that those gains are no longer in the double digits.  The company's Home Price Index (HPI) including distressed home sales was 8.8 percent higher than in May 2013 and rose 1.4 percent from the April level.  The HPI excluding distressed sales was up 8.1 percent from one year earlier and 1.2 percent from April. 

The national HPI Including distressed transactions is now 13.5 percent below its peak in April 2006.  Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -9.3 percent.

 

"The pace of home price appreciation is cooling off quickly as the weather warms up," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. "May's 8.8 percent year-over-year growth rate is down almost three percentage points from just three months ago. The influences of modestly rising inventory and less-than-expected demand are causing price growth to moderate toward our forecasted expectations."

 

The increases were national in scope.  Every state posted in increase in both HPIs in May and 25 states and the District of Columbia were within 10 percent of their pre-recession peak home price on the index including distressed sales.  Ten states set new price peaks in May, Alaska, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, Colorado, Texas and New York.  Texas and Colorado have set new peaks on almost a monthly basis since last fall.

 

Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were:  Hawaii (+13.2 percent), California (+13.1 percent), Nevada (+12.6 percent), Michigan (+11.8 percent) and New York (+11.0 percent).

 

Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: New York (+12.2 percent), Hawaii (+11.6 percent), Nevada (+10.6 percent), California (+10.4 percent) and Florida (+9.6 percent).

 

The CoreLogic Forecast HPI is for home prices, including distressed sales, to increase 0.8 percent month over month from May 2014 to June 2014 and, on a year-over-year basis by 6.0 percent from May 2014 to May 2015. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to rise 0.7 percent month over month from and by 5.1 percent year over. CoreLogic bases its forecast on the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

 

"Home prices are continuing to climb across most of the country which has both positive and negative implications for the housing market," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "While the rapid rise in prices over the past two years has lifted many homeowners out of negative equity, it has also become a negative factor in buying decisions for prospective purchasers weighing affordability concerns. As we move ahead, a moderation in home price increases over the next twelve months should help cool things down a bit and keep the housing recovery going."

Ninety-four of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in May 2014.

 

The six CBSAs that did not show an increase were: Worcester, Mass.-Conn.; Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.; New Haven-Milford, Conn.; Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.; Rochester, N.Y. and Winston-Salem, N.C.

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Listing Inventory

We spent some time this week going over our listings, to get a sense of what inventory we have for current buyers to see.  While we have more listings than we had six months ago, we found that we had the same distribution--a few new listings that are being shown a lot, a few short sales where the banks are taking so long to approve offers, or simply rejecting all offers, that they won't sell at all, and a bunch of listings that we know are overpriced, and are usually not even being shown.

In addition, we have recent anecdotal evidence matching what we have always known--houses that sell quickly for the highest prices are those that are perceived of as well-priced and likely to disappear if not bought right away.  We just sold a home in four days that had been listed twice before without success.  What was the difference?  This time the owners took the Realtors' pricing recommendation, had a lot of showings right away, started a bidding war, and ended up getting over the asking price.  One more notable fact about this house is that it is in pristine, move-in condition.  That's what buyers want now.  No more DIY projects, or deferred plans for upgrading.  What sells is what's perfect, or close to it.

So the bimodal distribution of inventory continues--a little bit of choice on great, well-priced, new listings, and a lot of signs on properties that aren't going to sell quickly.  Sellers, take note!

Absorption Rates

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Do the Math

There is a famous aphorism that says that there is no certainty in life, except for death and taxes.  Taxes turn  out to be a big factor in the purchase of property, although we don't really see the certainty involved.  Yes, taxes go up over time, but do they go up at the same rate in every city and town?  Are they phased in the same way everywhere?  Are the same services included?  Are the school systems comparable?

People buying property care a lot about what the taxes are, since what they are really basing affordability on is the amount of the monthly payment of mortgage, interest, insurance, and taxes.  While they may know the first two calculations, if they get a fixed-rate mortgage, they tend to overvalue the current information available, and overrate the problem of uncertainty going forward, about all kinds of things.  For instance, if you take money out of your savings to purchase a home, and those savings were in the stock market, what are you giving up as an alternative return?  You don't know what the stock market will do over the long haul, although you do know that, like real estate, it's generally cyclical.  If you buy rather than rent, will the price of your home increase over the period that you own it? Again, you don't know, although that is usually true, especially if you hold it for a long enough time, and if you buy when prices are not at a peak.  Will your housing needs remain stable for the foreseeable future?  "Foreseeable" would seem to imply that you know what they will be, but life has a way of throwing curve balls, be it a new job, an illness or injury, another child or children, an aging relative, or any number of other variables.  You can't know up front what the market will be like when you sell.  If you wait to buy, will prices and mortgage rates hold steady?  Although we can't know, it's not likely, especially if you wait for a long time. How quickly will rents rise, especially in New Haven, the country's tightest rental market?

I could go on and on, but I've made my point.  So, what's a person to do?  One of the best things I learned in business school was how to make a decision tree.  Since this column does not include a tutorial in econometrics, I'll simplify.  Make a list of the uncertainties, then put them each in either the "Buy Now" column, or the "Buy Later" column, depending upon which way they are each likely to lead you.  Try to quantify the general risk of each one in monetary terms (e.g., interest rates go up 1% vs. taxes go up 8%), and you will get an idea of what the math tells you.  You should, of course, factor in your own particular risk aversion factor (that is, how much uncertainty will bother you), but the numbers will tell you something.  If you find yourself arguing with the numbers, you will be telling yourself something that way, because you will be revealing your gut instinct.  Whatever you decide, it's time to go with that, and act.