You might think that, in such an evolved society, with so many technological advances, weather wouldn't matter so much. But you would be wrong. Last winter, with storm after storm hitting our region, most people didn't work a full week until sometime in March. Most of us just hunkered down and waited for spring, which didn't even come early after all that snow.
This year, we've seen almost the opposite. We had that one freak snowstorm, which seemed like some kind of Ice Age event, as opposed to the start of winter, and very little since then. The first winter storm came on a Saturday morning, when many people did not have to be on the roads, and it melted quickly.
So, you may ask, how does that relate to real estate? The harsher the winter, the slower the spring market, and vice versa. People want their homes listed before the spring rush, but it's not always clear when that will be. It won't be before the streets and sidewalks are cleared. Even though a bad winter should keep people indoors, getting ready to move, it doesn't seem to work that way. Until they can come out from under blankets--either of snow or the literal kind--they don't get their homes ready to list.
Since this year has so far proven to be mild, we are anticipating that the spring market may come early. I'm writing this too early to know what the groundhog is going to do later this week, but I want to get in an early warning: Get ready before the market takes off without you, whether you are a buyer or a seller. Be ready to go when it pops. And that means, this year, that it's already time to begin.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Monday, January 23, 2012
More Good News
Paul Krugman just wrote in the New York Times that we may be in a "virtuous cycle" instead of a vicious cycle. That is, he sees the economy improving, leading housing statistics to improve, leading to a further improvement in the economy. It's about time, but it's very welcome.
We've always know that FDR was right: The biggest thing we have to fear is fear itself. Once people are afraid that they may lose their jobs, their benefits, or their overtime, they cut back on their expenditures, giving their employers less income and leading to cutbacks. That's where we've been for a few years now.
Krugman makes the point that the Europeans have neglected to deal with the basic problems in their economies, whereas here we did let interest rates go down and we did let our housing bubble deflate. That leaves the US in a position to improve now, and all the signs are there. So that's something to cheer about, and hope that the virtuous cycle continues.
We've always know that FDR was right: The biggest thing we have to fear is fear itself. Once people are afraid that they may lose their jobs, their benefits, or their overtime, they cut back on their expenditures, giving their employers less income and leading to cutbacks. That's where we've been for a few years now.
Krugman makes the point that the Europeans have neglected to deal with the basic problems in their economies, whereas here we did let interest rates go down and we did let our housing bubble deflate. That leaves the US in a position to improve now, and all the signs are there. So that's something to cheer about, and hope that the virtuous cycle continues.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
The Tide is Turning
Probably most of you think that prices in real estate are dropping, with no end in sight. I would certainly think so as well, if I went by what I read in the national press. That's why I found it so interesting to look at our numbers for the region for the last quarter of 2011.
Prices in the New Haven area went up 0.7% for the last quarter of 2011 versus the last quarter of 2010, and the number of sales went up 2.8% for the same period. While that might not seem like much of a jump, it must be compared to the impression people have that prices are falling. It's not apples to apples--it measures the total sales against the total sales, not the same houses being transferred each year--but it's a good indicator that the bottom of the market may well have come and gone. When both prices and units rise, it's not too likely that one of the trends is an aberration. Prices may not jump, and there may be a few hiccups involving taxes and financing, but the fundamentals are there, and we should see some of the rewards this year.
If you are interested in seeing all the statistics yourself, please check our website at http://www.hpearce.com/.
Prices in the New Haven area went up 0.7% for the last quarter of 2011 versus the last quarter of 2010, and the number of sales went up 2.8% for the same period. While that might not seem like much of a jump, it must be compared to the impression people have that prices are falling. It's not apples to apples--it measures the total sales against the total sales, not the same houses being transferred each year--but it's a good indicator that the bottom of the market may well have come and gone. When both prices and units rise, it's not too likely that one of the trends is an aberration. Prices may not jump, and there may be a few hiccups involving taxes and financing, but the fundamentals are there, and we should see some of the rewards this year.
If you are interested in seeing all the statistics yourself, please check our website at http://www.hpearce.com/.
Monday, January 9, 2012
It's Time for a New Year and a New Attitude
Much of what's been published about recent consumer trends and confidence is very encouraging. Even the real estate news is improving. Car sales went up at the end of 2011, and both online and retail holiday sales were very strong, compared to projections. Can there be any doubt that, in 2012, real estate sales will follow?
So now the question for prospective buyers is: Do you want to be ahead of or behind the curve? Once all the signs for improvement are in place, you know that it's only a matter of time before prices start to rise. You also know that, due to tightening mortgage requirements everywhere, and the hurricane and freak snowstorm locally, there is a lot of pent-up demand waiting to be satisfied. There are also a lot of folks on the sidelines, just holding off until they know that the economy is on the mend.
Given those variables, you can put your oar into the water first, and get the best price, or you can stand still until you see other people starting to move, and then try to beat them. It's your choice, but I think the correct answer is clear!
So now the question for prospective buyers is: Do you want to be ahead of or behind the curve? Once all the signs for improvement are in place, you know that it's only a matter of time before prices start to rise. You also know that, due to tightening mortgage requirements everywhere, and the hurricane and freak snowstorm locally, there is a lot of pent-up demand waiting to be satisfied. There are also a lot of folks on the sidelines, just holding off until they know that the economy is on the mend.
Given those variables, you can put your oar into the water first, and get the best price, or you can stand still until you see other people starting to move, and then try to beat them. It's your choice, but I think the correct answer is clear!
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